✓ Strong directional bet: BUY Polymarket No at $0.360
Deribit's implied P(No) ≈ 73.4% vs Polymarket's 36.0%. EV per $1 staked ≈ +$1.04 (104%). Max upside 178%, max loss 100%.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 278 | $102.00 | +$175.78 (176%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+101.85 (+102%) |
| $500 | 1,389 | $510.00 | +$878.89 (176%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+509.25 (+102%) |
| $1,000 | 2,778 | $1,020.00 | +$1,757.78 (176%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+1,018.49 (+102%) |
| $5,000 | 13,889 | $5,100.00 | +$8,788.89 (176%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+5,092.45 (+102%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.360 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 73.4% · EV per $1 staked = +$1.038 · Max return 178%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.591 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bear put spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.650 | −$447.50 | 688 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.197 | +$135.97 | + $552.50 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.916 | $-0.453 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-630.73 | $-311.53 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $75,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$135.97 (kept credit) | $-311.53 |
| ≥ $76,000 | +$688.47 (Yes wins) | −$552.50 (max loss) + $135.97 credit | $-311.53 |
| ($75,000, $76,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.360 | −$503.15 | 1,398 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.355 | −$496.85 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.374 | $+0.285 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+522.52 | $+397.64 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $75,000 | +$1,397.64 | $0 (worthless) | $+397.64 |
| ≥ $76,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,397.64 (max) | $+397.64 |
| ($75,000, $76,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.