BTC above $80,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? 13:20:45 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 70.7% vs Polymarket 65.0%. EV ≈ +$0.09 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 154 | $102.00 | +$51.85 (52%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+6.83 (+7%) |
| $500 | 769 | $510.00 | +$259.23 (52%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+34.17 (+7%) |
| $1,000 | 1,538 | $1,020.00 | +$518.46 (52%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+68.34 (+7%) |
| $5,000 | 7,692 | $5,100.00 | +$2,592.31 (52%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+341.71 (+7%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.650 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 70.7% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.088 · Max return 54%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.250 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.390 | −$338.22 | 867 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.237 | +$205.45 | + $661.78 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.683 | $-0.153 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-591.95 | $-132.77 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $80,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$205.45 (kept credit) | $-132.77 |
| ≥ $81,000 | +$867.23 (Yes wins) | −$661.78 (max loss) + $205.45 credit | $-132.77 |
| ($80,000, $81,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.650 | −$622.11 | 957 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.395 | −$377.89 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.057 | $-0.045 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+54.96 | $-42.91 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $80,000 | +$957.09 | $0 (worthless) | $-42.91 |
| ≥ $81,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$957.09 (max) | $-42.91 |
| ($80,000, $81,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-08 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.