BTC above $76,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? 13:19:18 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 19.0% vs Polymarket 18.0%. EV ≈ +$0.05 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 556 | $102.00 | +$453.56 (454%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+3.36 (+3%) |
| $500 | 2,778 | $510.00 | +$2,267.78 (454%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+16.80 (+3%) |
| $1,000 | 5,556 | $1,020.00 | +$4,535.56 (454%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+33.60 (+3%) |
| $5,000 | 27,778 | $5,100.00 | +$22,677.78 (454%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+167.99 (+3%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.180 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 19.0% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.054 · Max return 456%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.035 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.840 | −$652.57 | 777 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.553 | +$429.45 | + $347.43 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.650 | $-0.287 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,282.11 | $-223.13 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $76,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$429.45 (kept credit) | $-223.13 |
| ≥ $77,000 | +$776.87 (Yes wins) | −$347.43 (max loss) + $429.45 credit | $-223.13 |
| ($76,000, $77,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.180 | −$144.45 | 803 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.066 | −$855.55 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.010 | $-0.246 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+7.74 | $-197.49 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $76,000 | +$802.51 | $0 (worthless) | $-197.49 |
| ≥ $77,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$802.51 (max) | $-197.49 |
| ($76,000, $77,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-09 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.