ETH above $2,200
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 10? 13:23:37 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket Yes
Deribit P(Yes) ≈ 84.8% vs Polymarket 82.0%. EV ≈ +$0.03 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket Yes (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if Yes resolves true, max loss if Yes resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 122 | $102.00 | +$19.95 (20%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+1.38 (+1%) |
| $500 | 610 | $510.00 | +$99.76 (20%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+6.91 (+1%) |
| $1,000 | 1,220 | $1,020.00 | +$199.51 (20%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+13.82 (+1%) |
| $5,000 | 6,098 | $5,100.00 | +$997.56 (20%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+69.08 (+1%) |
Polymarket Yes — best ask $0.820 · Deribit implied P(Yes) ≈ 84.8% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.034 · Max return 22%. Other side (No): EV $-0.199 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.820 | −$733.04 | 894 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.701 | +$627.00 | + $266.96 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.668 | $-0.119 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,490.88 | $-106.04 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$627.00 (kept credit) | $-106.04 |
| ≥ $2,250 | +$893.96 (Yes wins) | −$266.96 (max loss) + $627.00 credit | $-106.04 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.190 | −$162.13 | 853 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.982 | −$837.87 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $-0.038 | $-0.172 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-32.19 | $-146.70 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | +$853.30 | $0 (worthless) | $-146.70 |
| ≥ $2,250 | $0 (No loses) | +$853.30 (max) | $-146.70 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.