⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 93.9% vs Polymarket 82.0%. EV ≈ +$0.15 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 122 | $102.00 | +$19.95 (20%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+12.57 (+13%) |
| $500 | 610 | $510.00 | +$99.76 (20%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+62.84 (+13%) |
| $1,000 | 1,220 | $1,020.00 | +$199.51 (20%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+125.67 (+13%) |
| $5,000 | 6,098 | $5,100.00 | +$997.56 (20%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+628.37 (+13%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.820 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 93.9% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.146 · Max return 22%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.681 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $100
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.190 | −$165.86 | 873 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.044 | +$38.80 | + $834.14 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.251 | $-0.146 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-218.71 | $-127.06 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,800 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$38.80 (kept credit) | $-127.06 |
| ≥ $2,900 | +$872.94 (Yes wins) | −$834.14 (max loss) + $38.80 credit | $-127.06 |
| ($2,800, $2,900) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.820 | −$913.95 | 1,115 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.077 | −$86.05 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.119 | $+0.103 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+133.14 | $+114.57 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,800 | +$1,114.57 | $0 (worthless) | $+114.57 |
| ≥ $2,900 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,114.57 (max) | $+114.57 |
| ($2,800, $2,900) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.