⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 88.1% vs Polymarket 70.0%. EV ≈ +$0.26 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 143 | $102.00 | +$40.86 (41%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+23.81 (+24%) |
| $500 | 714 | $510.00 | +$204.29 (41%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+119.06 (+24%) |
| $1,000 | 1,429 | $1,020.00 | +$408.57 (41%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+238.12 (+24%) |
| $5,000 | 7,143 | $5,100.00 | +$2,042.86 (41%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+1,190.62 (+24%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.700 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 88.1% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.258 · Max return 43%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.615 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bear put spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.310 | −$250.04 | 807 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.070 | +$56.63 | + $749.96 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.429 | $-0.240 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-346.28 | $-193.41 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$56.63 (kept credit) | $-193.41 |
| ≥ $2,050 | +$806.59 (Yes wins) | −$749.96 (max loss) + $56.63 credit | $-193.41 |
| ($2,000, $2,050) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.700 | −$810.35 | 1,158 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.164 | −$189.65 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.181 | $+0.136 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+209.17 | $+157.64 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,000 | +$1,157.64 | $0 (worthless) | $+157.64 |
| ≥ $2,050 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,157.64 (max) | $+157.64 |
| ($2,000, $2,050) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.