✓ Strong directional bet: BUY Polymarket No at $0.140
Deribit's implied P(No) ≈ 61.8% vs Polymarket's 14.0%. EV per $1 staked ≈ +$3.41 (341%). Max upside 614%, max loss 100%.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 714 | $102.00 | +$612.29 (612%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+339.40 (+339%) |
| $500 | 3,571 | $510.00 | +$3,061.43 (612%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+1,697.00 (+339%) |
| $1,000 | 7,143 | $1,020.00 | +$6,122.86 (612%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+3,393.99 (+339%) |
| $5,000 | 35,714 | $5,100.00 | +$30,614.29 (612%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+16,969.97 (+339%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.140 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 61.8% · EV per $1 staked = +$3.414 · Max return 614%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.561 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.870 | −$572.83 | 658 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.351 | +$231.26 | + $427.17 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.252 | $-0.519 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-824.38 | $-341.57 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,400 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$231.26 (kept credit) | $-341.57 |
| ≥ $2,450 | +$658.43 (Yes wins) | −$427.17 (max loss) + $231.26 credit | $-341.57 |
| ($2,400, $2,450) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.140 | −$239.36 | 1,710 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.445 | −$760.64 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.478 | $+0.415 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+817.18 | $+709.73 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,400 | +$1,709.73 | $0 (worthless) | $+709.73 |
| ≥ $2,450 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,709.73 (max) | $+709.73 |
| ($2,400, $2,450) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.