✓ Strong directional bet: BUY Polymarket No at $0.340
Deribit's implied P(No) ≈ 70.2% vs Polymarket's 34.0%. EV per $1 staked ≈ +$1.06 (106%). Max upside 194%, max loss 100%.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 294 | $102.00 | +$192.12 (192%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+104.41 (+104%) |
| $500 | 1,471 | $510.00 | +$960.59 (192%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+522.03 (+104%) |
| $1,000 | 2,941 | $1,020.00 | +$1,921.18 (192%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+1,044.06 (+104%) |
| $5,000 | 14,706 | $5,100.00 | +$9,605.88 (192%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+5,220.29 (+104%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.340 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 70.2% · EV per $1 staked = +$1.064 · Max return 194%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.555 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bear put spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.670 | −$474.28 | 708 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.257 | +$182.16 | + $525.72 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.968 | $-0.413 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-685.38 | $-292.12 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$182.16 (kept credit) | $-292.12 |
| ≥ $2,250 | +$707.88 (Yes wins) | −$525.72 (max loss) + $182.16 credit | $-292.12 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.340 | −$492.11 | 1,447 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.351 | −$507.89 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.362 | $+0.309 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+523.63 | $+447.38 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | +$1,447.38 | $0 (worthless) | $+447.38 |
| ≥ $2,250 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,447.38 (max) | $+447.38 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.