ETH above $2,300
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? 13:21:22 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 42.1% vs Polymarket 33.0%. EV ≈ +$0.28 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 303 | $102.00 | +$201.03 (201%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+25.69 (+26%) |
| $500 | 1,515 | $510.00 | +$1,005.15 (201%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+128.45 (+26%) |
| $1,000 | 3,030 | $1,020.00 | +$2,010.30 (201%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+256.90 (+26%) |
| $5,000 | 15,152 | $5,100.00 | +$10,051.52 (201%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+1,284.51 (+26%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.330 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 42.1% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.277 · Max return 203%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.185 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.710 | −$505.02 | 711 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.304 | +$216.32 | + $494.98 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.289 | $-0.406 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-916.59 | $-288.70 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,300 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$216.32 (kept credit) | $-288.70 |
| ≥ $2,350 | +$711.30 (Yes wins) | −$494.98 (max loss) + $216.32 credit | $-288.70 |
| ($2,300, $2,350) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.330 | −$351.72 | 1,066 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.608 | −$648.28 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.091 | $+0.062 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+97.39 | $+65.83 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,300 | +$1,065.83 | $0 (worthless) | $+65.83 |
| ≥ $2,350 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,065.83 (max) | $+65.83 |
| ($2,300, $2,350) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.