⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 82.1% vs Polymarket 58.0%. EV ≈ +$0.42 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 172 | $102.00 | +$70.41 (70%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+39.56 (+40%) |
| $500 | 862 | $510.00 | +$352.07 (70%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+197.80 (+40%) |
| $1,000 | 1,724 | $1,020.00 | +$704.14 (70%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+395.59 (+40%) |
| $5,000 | 8,621 | $5,100.00 | +$3,520.69 (70%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+1,977.96 (+40%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.580 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 82.1% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.416 · Max return 72%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.584 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.430 | −$333.44 | 775 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.140 | +$108.90 | + $666.56 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.609 | $-0.290 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-472.22 | $-224.55 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,600 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$108.90 (kept credit) | $-224.55 |
| ≥ $2,650 | +$775.45 (Yes wins) | −$666.56 (max loss) + $108.90 credit | $-224.55 |
| ($2,600, $2,650) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.580 | −$712.49 | 1,228 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.234 | −$287.51 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.241 | $+0.186 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+296.10 | $+228.42 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,600 | +$1,228.42 | $0 (worthless) | $+228.42 |
| ≥ $2,650 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,228.42 (max) | $+228.42 |
| ($2,600, $2,650) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.