BTC above $82,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? 13:18:52 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 88.8% vs Polymarket 80.0%. EV ≈ +$0.11 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 125 | $102.00 | +$23.00 (23%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+8.95 (+9%) |
| $500 | 625 | $510.00 | +$115.00 (23%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+44.76 (+9%) |
| $1,000 | 1,250 | $1,020.00 | +$230.00 (23%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+89.52 (+9%) |
| $5,000 | 6,250 | $5,100.00 | +$1,150.00 (23%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+447.62 (+9%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.800 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 88.8% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.110 · Max return 25%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.489 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.220 | −$192.81 | 876 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.079 | +$69.21 | + $807.19 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.332 | $-0.141 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-291.30 | $-123.60 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $82,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$69.21 (kept credit) | $-123.60 |
| ≥ $83,000 | +$876.40 (Yes wins) | −$807.19 (max loss) + $69.21 credit | $-123.60 |
| ($82,000, $83,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.800 | −$856.31 | 1,070 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.134 | −$143.69 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.088 | $+0.066 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+93.79 | $+70.38 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $82,000 | +$1,070.38 | $0 (worthless) | $+70.38 |
| ≥ $83,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,070.38 (max) | $+70.38 |
| ($82,000, $83,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.