⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 80.3% vs Polymarket 54.0%. EV ≈ +$0.49 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 185 | $102.00 | +$83.19 (83%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+46.79 (+47%) |
| $500 | 926 | $510.00 | +$415.93 (83%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+233.97 (+47%) |
| $1,000 | 1,852 | $1,020.00 | +$831.85 (83%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+467.94 (+47%) |
| $5,000 | 9,259 | $5,100.00 | +$4,159.26 (83%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+2,339.70 (+47%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.540 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 80.3% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.488 · Max return 85%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.582 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.470 | −$358.28 | 762 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.158 | +$120.59 | + $641.72 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.667 | $-0.312 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-508.08 | $-237.70 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $85,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$120.59 (kept credit) | $-237.70 |
| ≥ $86,000 | +$762.30 (Yes wins) | −$641.72 (max loss) + $120.59 credit | $-237.70 |
| ($85,000, $86,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.540 | −$694.73 | 1,287 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.237 | −$305.27 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.263 | $+0.223 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+338.99 | $+286.54 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $85,000 | +$1,286.54 | $0 (worthless) | $+286.54 |
| ≥ $86,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,286.54 (max) | $+286.54 |
| ($85,000, $86,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.