BTC above $76,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? 13:22:44 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 18.2% vs Polymarket 17.0%. EV ≈ +$0.07 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 588 | $102.00 | +$486.24 (486%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+5.30 (+5%) |
| $500 | 2,941 | $510.00 | +$2,431.18 (486%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+26.49 (+5%) |
| $1,000 | 5,882 | $1,020.00 | +$4,862.35 (486%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+52.97 (+5%) |
| $5,000 | 29,412 | $5,100.00 | +$24,311.76 (486%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+264.87 (+5%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.170 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 18.2% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.073 · Max return 488%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.027 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.840 | −$673.55 | 802 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.593 | +$475.40 | + $326.45 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.658 | $-0.247 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,329.14 | $-198.15 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $76,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$475.40 (kept credit) | $-198.15 |
| ≥ $77,000 | +$801.85 (Yes wins) | −$326.45 (max loss) + $475.40 credit | $-198.15 |
| ($76,000, $77,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.170 | −$137.41 | 808 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.067 | −$862.59 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.012 | $-0.237 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+10.03 | $-191.71 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $76,000 | +$808.29 | $0 (worthless) | $-191.71 |
| ≥ $77,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$808.29 (max) | $-191.71 |
| ($76,000, $77,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-08 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.