ETH above $2,200
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9? 13:22:19 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗✗ Negative directional EV using Deribit RN-prob
Polymarket already prices this in line with or richer than Deribit's read. Yes EV -0.02 / No EV -0.04 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket Yes (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if Yes resolves true, max loss if Yes resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 116 | $102.00 | +$14.28 (14%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $-3.53 (-4%) |
| $500 | 581 | $510.00 | +$71.40 (14%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $-17.64 (-4%) |
| $1,000 | 1,163 | $1,020.00 | +$142.79 (14%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $-35.28 (-4%) |
| $5,000 | 5,814 | $5,100.00 | +$713.95 (14%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $-176.38 (-4%) |
Polymarket Yes — best ask $0.860 · Deribit implied P(Yes) ≈ 84.7% · EV per $1 staked = +$-0.015 · Max return 16%. Other side (No): EV $-0.043 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.860 | −$742.20 | 863 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.701 | +$605.22 | + $257.80 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.707 | $-0.159 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,473.05 | $-136.98 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$605.22 (kept credit) | $-136.98 |
| ≥ $2,250 | +$863.02 (Yes wins) | −$257.80 (max loss) + $605.22 credit | $-136.98 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.160 | −$140.13 | 876 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.982 | −$859.87 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $-0.007 | $-0.142 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-6.01 | $-124.18 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | +$875.82 | $0 (worthless) | $-124.18 |
| ≥ $2,250 | $0 (No loses) | +$875.82 (max) | $-124.18 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-09 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.