⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 91.1% vs Polymarket 76.0%. EV ≈ +$0.20 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 132 | $102.00 | +$29.58 (30%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+17.90 (+18%) |
| $500 | 658 | $510.00 | +$147.89 (30%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+89.52 (+18%) |
| $1,000 | 1,316 | $1,020.00 | +$295.79 (30%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+179.03 (+18%) |
| $5,000 | 6,579 | $5,100.00 | +$1,478.95 (30%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+895.17 (+18%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.760 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 91.1% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.199 · Max return 32%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.645 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $2,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.250 | −$210.86 | 843 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.064 | +$54.28 | + $789.14 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.339 | $-0.186 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-285.70 | $-156.58 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $90,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$54.28 (kept credit) | $-156.58 |
| ≥ $92,000 | +$843.42 (Yes wins) | −$789.14 (max loss) + $54.28 credit | $-156.58 |
| ($90,000, $92,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.760 | −$874.97 | 1,151 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.109 | −$125.03 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.151 | $+0.131 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+174.15 | $+151.27 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $90,000 | +$1,151.27 | $0 (worthless) | $+151.27 |
| ≥ $92,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,151.27 (max) | $+151.27 |
| ($90,000, $92,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.