ETH above $2,100
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 10? 14:44:57 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗✗ Negative directional EV using Deribit RN-prob
Polymarket already prices this in line with or richer than Deribit's read. Yes EV -0.00 / No EV -0.37 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket Yes (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if Yes resolves true, max loss if Yes resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 103 | $102.00 | +$1.09 (1%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $-2.17 (-2%) |
| $500 | 515 | $510.00 | +$5.46 (1%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $-10.84 (-2%) |
| $1,000 | 1,031 | $1,020.00 | +$10.93 (1%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $-21.67 (-2%) |
| $5,000 | 5,155 | $5,100.00 | +$54.64 (1%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $-108.36 (-2%) |
Polymarket Yes — best ask $0.970 · Deribit implied P(Yes) ≈ 96.8% · EV per $1 staked = +$-0.002 · Max return 3%. Other side (No): EV $-0.368 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.970 | −$617.79 | 637 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.400 | +$254.68 | + $382.21 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.938 | $-0.570 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,234.54 | $-363.10 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,100 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$254.68 (kept credit) | $-363.10 |
| ≥ $2,150 | +$636.90 (Yes wins) | −$382.21 (max loss) + $254.68 credit | $-363.10 |
| ($2,100, $2,150) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.050 | −$30.75 | 615 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.576 | −$969.25 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $-0.018 | $-0.626 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-11.30 | $-385.00 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,100 | +$615.00 | $0 (worthless) | $-385.00 |
| ≥ $2,150 | $0 (No loses) | +$615.00 (max) | $-385.00 |
| ($2,100, $2,150) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.