BTC above $76,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? 14:54:33 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗✗ Negative directional EV using Deribit RN-prob
Polymarket already prices this in line with or richer than Deribit's read. Yes EV -0.01 / No EV -0.11 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket Yes (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if Yes resolves true, max loss if Yes resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 102 | $102.00 | +$0.35 (0%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $-2.67 (-3%) |
| $500 | 512 | $510.00 | +$1.77 (0%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $-13.34 (-3%) |
| $1,000 | 1,024 | $1,020.00 | +$3.54 (0%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $-26.68 (-3%) |
| $5,000 | 5,118 | $5,100.00 | +$17.71 (0%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $-133.39 (-3%) |
Polymarket Yes — best ask $0.977 · Deribit implied P(Yes) ≈ 97.0% · EV per $1 staked = +$-0.007 · Max return 2%. Other side (No): EV $-0.105 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.977 | −$755.52 | 773 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.684 | +$528.82 | + $244.48 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.947 | $-0.293 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,505.99 | $-226.70 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $76,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$528.82 (kept credit) | $-226.70 |
| ≥ $77,000 | +$773.30 (Yes wins) | −$244.48 (max loss) + $528.82 credit | $-226.70 |
| ($76,000, $77,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.033 | −$25.78 | 781 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.247 | −$974.22 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $-0.003 | $-0.280 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-2.72 | $-218.76 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $76,000 | +$781.24 | $0 (worthless) | $-218.76 |
| ≥ $77,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$781.24 (max) | $-218.76 |
| ($76,000, $77,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.