ETH above $2,500
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 10? 14:40:23 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 93.4% vs Polymarket 86.0%. EV ≈ +$0.09 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 116 | $102.00 | +$14.28 (14%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+6.55 (+7%) |
| $500 | 581 | $510.00 | +$71.40 (14%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+32.75 (+7%) |
| $1,000 | 1,163 | $1,020.00 | +$142.79 (14%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+65.49 (+7%) |
| $5,000 | 5,814 | $5,100.00 | +$713.95 (14%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+327.45 (+7%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.860 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 93.4% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.085 · Max return 16%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.557 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.150 | −$136.59 | 911 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.052 | +$47.16 | + $863.41 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.216 | $-0.098 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-197.12 | $-89.43 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,500 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$47.16 (kept credit) | $-89.43 |
| ≥ $2,550 | +$910.57 (Yes wins) | −$863.41 (max loss) + $47.16 credit | $-89.43 |
| ($2,500, $2,550) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.860 | −$914.86 | 1,064 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.080 | −$85.14 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.074 | $+0.060 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+78.21 | $+63.79 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,500 | +$1,063.79 | $0 (worthless) | $+63.79 |
| ≥ $2,550 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,063.79 (max) | $+63.79 |
| ($2,500, $2,550) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.