ETH above $2,200
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? 14:44:05 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 8.2% vs Polymarket 8.0%. EV ≈ +$0.03 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 1,250 | $102.00 | +$1,148.00 (1148%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+1.12 (+1%) |
| $500 | 6,250 | $510.00 | +$5,740.00 (1148%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+5.58 (+1%) |
| $1,000 | 12,500 | $1,020.00 | +$11,480.00 (1148%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+11.15 (+1%) |
| $5,000 | 62,500 | $5,100.00 | +$57,400.00 (1148%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+55.77 (+1%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.080 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 8.2% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.031 · Max return 1150%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.013 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.930 | −$589.75 | 634 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.353 | +$223.88 | + $410.25 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.848 | $-0.577 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,171.57 | $-365.86 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$223.88 (kept credit) | $-365.86 |
| ≥ $2,250 | +$634.14 (Yes wins) | −$410.25 (max loss) + $223.88 credit | $-365.86 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.080 | −$54.47 | 681 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.389 | −$945.53 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.002 | $-0.469 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+1.70 | $-319.11 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | +$680.89 | $0 (worthless) | $-319.11 |
| ≥ $2,250 | $0 (No loses) | +$680.89 (max) | $-319.11 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-07 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-07 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.