ETH above $2,200
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? 14:42:17 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 12.3% vs Polymarket 12.0%. EV ≈ +$0.02 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 833 | $102.00 | +$731.33 (731%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+0.24 (+0%) |
| $500 | 4,167 | $510.00 | +$3,656.67 (731%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+1.22 (+0%) |
| $1,000 | 8,333 | $1,020.00 | +$7,313.33 (731%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+2.44 (+0%) |
| $5,000 | 41,667 | $5,100.00 | +$36,566.67 (731%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+12.19 (+0%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.120 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 12.3% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.022 · Max return 733%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.046 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.920 | −$757.77 | 824 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.706 | +$581.43 | + $242.23 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.797 | $-0.214 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,480.38 | $-176.34 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$581.43 (kept credit) | $-176.34 |
| ≥ $2,250 | +$823.66 (Yes wins) | −$242.23 (max loss) + $581.43 credit | $-176.34 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.120 | −$101.79 | 848 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.059 | −$898.21 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.003 | $-0.179 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+2.28 | $-151.73 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | +$848.27 | $0 (worthless) | $-151.73 |
| ≥ $2,250 | $0 (No loses) | +$848.27 (max) | $-151.73 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-08 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.