ETH above $2,200
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? 14:41:26 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗✗ Negative directional EV using Deribit RN-prob
Polymarket already prices this in line with or richer than Deribit's read. Yes EV -0.02 / No EV -0.26 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket Yes (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if Yes resolves true, max loss if Yes resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 103 | $102.00 | +$0.56 (1%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $-4.11 (-4%) |
| $500 | 513 | $510.00 | +$2.82 (1%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $-20.56 (-4%) |
| $1,000 | 1,026 | $1,020.00 | +$5.64 (1%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $-41.12 (-4%) |
| $5,000 | 5,128 | $5,100.00 | +$28.21 (1%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $-205.59 (-4%) |
Polymarket Yes — best ask $0.975 · Deribit implied P(Yes) ≈ 95.4% · EV per $1 staked = +$-0.021 · Max return 3%. Other side (No): EV $-0.265 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.975 | −$610.09 | 626 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.377 | +$235.83 | + $389.91 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.929 | $-0.598 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,207.30 | $-374.26 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$235.83 (kept credit) | $-374.26 |
| ≥ $2,250 | +$625.74 (Yes wins) | −$389.91 (max loss) + $235.83 credit | $-374.26 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.062 | −$40.10 | 647 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.484 | −$959.90 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $-0.016 | $-0.546 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-10.61 | $-353.16 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,200 | +$646.84 | $0 (worthless) | $-353.16 |
| ≥ $2,250 | $0 (No loses) | +$646.84 (max) | $-353.16 |
| ($2,200, $2,250) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.