BTC above $84,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? 14:57:14 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 93.0% vs Polymarket 86.8%. EV ≈ +$0.07 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 115 | $102.00 | +$13.21 (13%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+5.17 (+5%) |
| $500 | 576 | $510.00 | +$66.04 (13%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+25.85 (+5%) |
| $1,000 | 1,152 | $1,020.00 | +$132.07 (13%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+51.70 (+5%) |
| $5,000 | 5,760 | $5,100.00 | +$660.37 (13%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+258.48 (+5%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.868 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 93.0% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.072 · Max return 15%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.505 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.141 | −$129.97 | 922 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.056 | +$51.72 | + $870.03 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.211 | $-0.085 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-194.28 | $-78.25 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $84,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$51.72 (kept credit) | $-78.25 |
| ≥ $85,000 | +$921.75 (Yes wins) | −$870.03 (max loss) + $51.72 credit | $-78.25 |
| ($84,000, $85,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.868 | −$892.81 | 1,029 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.104 | −$107.19 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.062 | $+0.028 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+64.01 | $+28.59 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $84,000 | +$1,028.59 | $0 (worthless) | $+28.59 |
| ≥ $85,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,028.59 (max) | $+28.59 |
| ($84,000, $85,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-09 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.