BTC above $74,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? 14:54:43 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket Yes
Deribit P(Yes) ≈ 96.9% vs Polymarket 96.0%. EV ≈ +$0.01 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket Yes (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if Yes resolves true, max loss if Yes resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 104 | $102.00 | +$2.17 (2%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $-1.09 (-1%) |
| $500 | 521 | $510.00 | +$10.83 (2%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $-5.46 (-1%) |
| $1,000 | 1,042 | $1,020.00 | +$21.67 (2%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $-10.92 (-1%) |
| $5,000 | 5,208 | $5,100.00 | +$108.33 (2%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $-54.59 (-1%) |
Polymarket Yes — best ask $0.960 · Deribit implied P(Yes) ≈ 96.9% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.009 · Max return 4%. Other side (No): EV $-0.362 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.960 | −$776.63 | 809 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.724 | +$585.62 | + $223.37 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.929 | $-0.236 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,560.31 | $-191.01 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $74,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$585.62 (kept credit) | $-191.01 |
| ≥ $75,000 | +$808.99 (Yes wins) | −$223.37 (max loss) + $585.62 credit | $-191.01 |
| ($74,000, $75,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.049 | −$37.82 | 772 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $1.247 | −$962.18 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $-0.018 | $-0.296 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-13.67 | $-228.22 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $74,000 | +$771.78 | $0 (worthless) | $-228.22 |
| ≥ $75,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$771.78 (max) | $-228.22 |
| ($74,000, $75,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-09 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.