⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 96.4% vs Polymarket 92.0%. EV ≈ +$0.05 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 109 | $102.00 | +$6.70 (7%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+2.74 (+3%) |
| $500 | 543 | $510.00 | +$33.48 (7%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+13.69 (+3%) |
| $1,000 | 1,087 | $1,020.00 | +$66.96 (7%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+27.38 (+3%) |
| $5,000 | 5,435 | $5,100.00 | +$334.78 (7%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+136.91 (+3%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.920 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 96.4% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.047 · Max return 9%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.595 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bear put spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.090 | −$83.65 | 929 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.014 | +$13.13 | + $916.35 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.126 | $-0.076 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-117.49 | $-70.52 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $1,800 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$13.13 (kept credit) | $-70.52 |
| ≥ $1,850 | +$929.48 (Yes wins) | −$916.35 (max loss) + $13.13 credit | $-70.52 |
| ($1,800, $1,850) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.920 | −$942.12 | 1,024 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.057 | −$57.88 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.044 | $+0.023 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+44.64 | $+24.04 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $1,800 | +$1,024.04 | $0 (worthless) | $+24.04 |
| ≥ $1,850 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,024.04 (max) | $+24.04 |
| ($1,800, $1,850) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-06-01 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-29 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.