BTC above $84,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? 14:53:41 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 97.1% vs Polymarket 95.9%. EV ≈ +$0.01 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 104 | $102.00 | +$2.28 (2%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $-0.75 (-1%) |
| $500 | 521 | $510.00 | +$11.38 (2%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $-3.73 (-1%) |
| $1,000 | 1,043 | $1,020.00 | +$22.75 (2%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $-7.46 (-1%) |
| $5,000 | 5,214 | $5,100.00 | +$113.76 (2%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $-37.32 (-1%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.959 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 97.1% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.013 · Max return 4%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.310 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.042 | −$40.94 | 975 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.016 | +$15.69 | + $959.06 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.071 | $-0.026 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-69.19 | $-25.25 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $84,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$15.69 (kept credit) | $-25.25 |
| ≥ $85,000 | +$974.75 (Yes wins) | −$959.06 (max loss) + $15.69 credit | $-25.25 |
| ($84,000, $85,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.959 | −$944.52 | 985 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.056 | −$55.48 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.012 | $-0.015 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+11.84 | $-15.10 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $84,000 | +$984.90 | $0 (worthless) | $-15.10 |
| ≥ $85,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$984.90 (max) | $-15.10 |
| ($84,000, $85,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.