ETH above $2,500
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? 14:44:27 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 96.0% vs Polymarket 94.0%. EV ≈ +$0.02 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 106 | $102.00 | +$4.38 (4%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+0.10 (+0%) |
| $500 | 532 | $510.00 | +$21.91 (4%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+0.51 (+0%) |
| $1,000 | 1,064 | $1,020.00 | +$43.83 (4%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+1.01 (+0%) |
| $5,000 | 5,319 | $5,100.00 | +$219.15 (4%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+5.06 (+0%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.940 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 96.0% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.021 · Max return 6%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.425 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.070 | −$67.19 | 960 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.028 | +$27.11 | + $932.81 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.110 | $-0.042 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-105.83 | $-40.08 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,500 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$27.11 (kept credit) | $-40.08 |
| ≥ $2,550 | +$959.92 (Yes wins) | −$932.81 (max loss) + $27.11 credit | $-40.08 |
| ($2,500, $2,550) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.940 | −$947.79 | 1,008 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.052 | −$52.21 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.020 | $+0.008 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+19.91 | $+8.28 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,500 | +$1,008.28 | $0 (worthless) | $+8.28 |
| ≥ $2,550 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,008.28 (max) | $+8.28 |
| ($2,500, $2,550) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-07 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-07 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.