ETH above $2,500
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 8? 14:41:26 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 93.3% vs Polymarket 91.0%. EV ≈ +$0.03 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 110 | $102.00 | +$7.89 (8%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+0.54 (+1%) |
| $500 | 549 | $510.00 | +$39.45 (8%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+2.71 (+1%) |
| $1,000 | 1,099 | $1,020.00 | +$78.90 (8%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+5.41 (+1%) |
| $5,000 | 5,495 | $5,100.00 | +$394.51 (8%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+27.06 (+1%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.910 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 93.3% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.025 · Max return 10%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.443 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.120 | −$112.34 | 936 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.052 | +$48.50 | + $887.66 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.187 | $-0.068 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-174.95 | $-63.84 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,500 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$48.50 (kept credit) | $-63.84 |
| ≥ $2,550 | +$936.16 (Yes wins) | −$887.66 (max loss) + $48.50 credit | $-63.84 |
| ($2,500, $2,550) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.910 | −$919.13 | 1,010 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.080 | −$80.87 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.023 | $+0.010 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+23.36 | $+10.04 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,500 | +$1,010.04 | $0 (worthless) | $+10.04 |
| ≥ $2,550 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,010.04 (max) | $+10.04 |
| ($2,500, $2,550) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-08 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.