Realized P&L
-$1.79K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.00K
Hit rate
71.2%
Resolved
9,833
Trades
28,198
lifetime
Volume
$399.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$19.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-08
last 11-06 00:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 143 days
Categories
Crypto
49% 96% -$376
Other
37% 26% -$1,123
Politics
8% 7% -$185
Tech
5% 2% -$56
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$43
Sports
0% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 1608 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +1,382 $930 80¢ $1.1K +$183 11-05 13:09
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026? No +1,258 $1,001 88¢ $1.1K +$106 11-05 07:42
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,139 $786 86¢ $983 +$197 11-03 18:57
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +1,004 $741 88¢ $884 +$143 11-05 13:19
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? No +1,053 $655 80¢ $837 +$182 11-05 13:24
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? No +1,053 $693 72¢ $753 +$60 11-04 07:40
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher? No +939 $801 79¢ $742 -$59 11-05 06:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? Yes +748 $600 96¢ $714 +$114 11-03 22:50
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? Yes +1,307 $768 54¢ $707 -$62 11-05 23:47
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? Yes +961 $601 66¢ $630 +$29 11-05 23:02
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Yes +843 $569 74¢ $624 +$55 11-04 04:20
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +1,014 $474 62¢ $624 +$150 11-05 20:44
Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO? No +697 $534 89¢ $620 +$86 11-05 16:19
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? No +765 $598 80¢ $608 +$10 11-05 14:42
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? No +1,307 $566 46¢ $600 +$34 11-05 23:47
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +781 $622 73¢ $570 -$52 11-05 15:12
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026? Yes +793 $427 70¢ $555 +$128 11-06 00:59
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? Yes +565 $440 95¢ $537 +$97 11-01 02:14
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +877 $488 60¢ $522 +$33 11-01 20:43
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +851 $505 60¢ $515 +$10 11-04 17:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +731 $431 68¢ $497 +$66 11-03 22:40
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? No +818 $568 59¢ $486 -$82 11-05 15:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +550 $430 88¢ $485 +$55 10-27 15:22
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +665 $514 73¢ $482 -$32 11-03 23:21
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +542 $382 88¢ $475 +$92 11-03 23:56
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +619 $316 76¢ $470 +$155 11-02 16:40
israel x iran ceasefire continues through november 15 Yes +600 $379 78¢ $465 +$86 11-03 23:09
Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026? No +489 $398 95¢ $465 +$66 11-03 22:43
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026? No +477 $393 94¢ $449 +$56 11-03 21:24
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026? Yes +568 $357 78¢ $446 +$89 11-04 19:13