Realized P&L
-$1.90K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.43K
Hit rate
69.5%
Resolved
9,979
Trades
29,137
lifetime
Volume
$413.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$20.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-08
last 11-07 17:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 144 days
Categories
Crypto
47% 96% -$376
Other
38% 24% -$1,210
Politics
8% 7% -$193
Tech
6% 2% -$66
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$43
Sports
0% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 1608 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +1,582 $1,087 82¢ $1.3K +$218 11-07 07:55
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,139 $786 89¢ $1.0K +$224 11-03 18:57
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026? No +1,258 $1,001 78¢ $981 -$20 11-06 04:05
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +1,024 $758 95¢ $973 +$215 11-06 18:09
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? No +1,427 $628 65¢ $929 +$301 11-07 16:01
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? No +1,053 $655 84¢ $885 +$229 11-05 13:24
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? No +1,103 $729 77¢ $849 +$121 11-06 14:10
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +940 $747 87¢ $818 +$70 11-07 08:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? Yes +748 $600 99¢ $741 +$141 11-03 22:50
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +1,043 $493 70¢ $725 +$232 11-07 18:36
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher? No +939 $801 75¢ $704 -$97 11-05 06:37
Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? Yes +668 $457 99¢ $659 +$202 10-28 17:51
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Yes +843 $569 74¢ $624 +$55 11-04 04:20
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? Yes +1,075 $672 57¢ $613 -$59 11-07 12:06
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +897 $503 68¢ $605 +$103 11-06 17:26
Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO? No +697 $534 85¢ $590 +$56 11-05 16:19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +731 $431 79¢ $577 +$146 11-03 22:40
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +851 $505 67¢ $570 +$66 11-04 17:05
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? No +765 $598 73¢ $558 -$40 11-05 14:42
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? Yes +565 $440 94¢ $533 +$93 11-01 02:14
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? No +938 $640 56¢ $521 -$119 11-07 16:21
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +550 $430 93¢ $514 +$84 10-27 15:22
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026? Yes +793 $427 64¢ $508 +$81 11-06 00:59
israel x iran ceasefire continues through november 15 Yes +600 $379 84¢ $507 +$128 11-03 23:09
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026? No +662 $479 76¢ $507 +$27 11-07 02:08
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? Yes +1,427 $826 35¢ $497 -$329 11-07 16:01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026? Yes +666 $404 74¢ $493 +$89 11-07 05:59
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026? Yes +618 $398 80¢ $491 +$93 11-06 11:16
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +730 $399 66¢ $482 +$83 11-06 10:35
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? No +1,075 $428 43¢ $462 +$35 11-07 06:05