Flawed-Fleece — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

80.2%

Resolved

365

Trades

816

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-08 13:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

74% 77% +$1

Crypto

20% 86% +$0

Politics

3% 73% $0

Sports

2% 31% $0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		+7	$6	100¢	$6	$0	11-08 13:06
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		+6	$6	100¢	$6	+$0	10-26 06:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	4	$99	49	49	+0	Yes	+$0	08-14 06:15
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	5	$97	48	48	+0	No	+$0	08-27 19:56
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 23?	3	$96	48	48	+0	No	+$0	07-23 01:27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on July 20?	7	$94	47	47	+0	No	+$0	07-20 12:02
ethereum above 1700 on july 27 2026	3	$88	44	44	+0	Yes	+$0	07-27 08:11
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on July 27?	5	$87	43	43	+0	No	+$0	07-26 12:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	4	$77	39	39	+0	Yes	+$0	08-24 04:22
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on August 30?	3	$75	38	38	+0	No	+$0	08-29 22:47
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-29 17:58
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-06 16:32
Will "The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-28 18:53
ethereum above 1600 on august 1 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	08-01 12:45
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 29?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-29 09:40
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 27?	4	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-26 23:35
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 25?	6	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-25 04:39
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-14 08:31
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 9?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-09 10:23
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 3?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-03 05:50
Will muse-spark have the best AI model on May 23, 2026?	4	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-23 08:53
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25?	2	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	05-25 16:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-26 03:38
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 7?	3	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	08-07 10:50
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 27?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-26 12:55
ethereum above 1700 on august 11 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	Yes	+$0	08-11 11:46
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 7?	4	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-07 12:21
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 79°F or below on July 30?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-29 22:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 13?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-13 00:39
Will Rebecca Kleefisch win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?	4	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	08-11 11:25
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 22?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-22 08:01
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 13?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	08-13 08:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 13:06:28	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0xed374a…
10-26 06:35:30	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd9f0b3…
09-01 13:34:10	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 1?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x68432f…
09-01 10:14:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 1?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1189ec…
09-01 09:07:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 1?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc9bf83…
09-01 09:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 1?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x51f644…
09-01 08:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc4e511…
09-01 06:25:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xabd32a…
09-01 02:58:54	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf2734a…
09-01 01:38:49	Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be greater than $450M at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x7ee155…
08-31 22:46:28	Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x1ec4cb…
08-31 22:43:43	Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xcd871b…
08-31 19:16:13	Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x40a6ee…
08-31 15:47:36	Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x35408b…
08-31 14:19:49	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$25	0xae24e5…
08-31 10:58:24	Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8099c5…
08-31 05:44:45	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$25	0x60cfdf…
08-31 01:45:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa1b9d2…
08-30 23:52:25	Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be greater than $450M at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x598817…
08-30 19:25:34	Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be greater than $450M at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8bb0fe…
08-30 14:46:25	bitcoin above 82k on august 30 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x62dbd8…
08-30 10:28:24	bitcoin above 82k on august 30 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x446a41…
08-29 22:49:30	ethereum above 2700 on august 30 2026	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xcc462d…
08-29 22:47:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on August 30?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$37	0x1047e4…
08-29 18:33:27	ethereum above 2700 on august 30 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xbd88ac…
08-29 18:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on August 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x9ff377…
08-29 15:43:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on August 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9d2a19…
08-29 09:40:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 29?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x853747…
08-28 21:22:25	Will "Hazel Eyes" - Sam Smith first week album sales be between 25k and 30k?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xa48a4a…
08-28 18:52:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 29?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xc9cd0d…
08-28 10:21:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 28?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x735303…
08-28 08:38:04	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 28?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc51cc6…
08-28 06:31:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C on August 28?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe143e9…
08-28 04:46:51	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on August 28?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x359aaf…
08-28 04:45:15	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xc82a44…
08-28 04:05:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C on August 28?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6383ef…
08-27 22:51:54	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5cf360…
08-27 20:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3fae3c…
08-27 19:56:00	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x67e385…
08-27 10:45:51	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xc5b6dd…
08-27 10:12:31	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x85c839…
08-27 10:11:54	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xdd6e2f…
08-27 00:47:09	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd8f162…
08-26 23:35:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 27?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x56c0e2…
08-26 23:03:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 27?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb36999…
08-26 21:34:07	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 27?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xf702b9…
08-26 20:51:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 27?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdd05dd…
08-26 20:10:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 27?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xdd67b0…
08-26 12:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 27?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc72ec6…
08-25 15:25:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3f6df8…
08-25 14:28:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xadfcc6…
08-25 14:19:12	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x97d9f3…
08-25 14:19:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x121fa1…
08-25 14:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 25?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd2e075…
08-25 12:44:58	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x512659…
08-25 10:23:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0xbaf5ef…
08-25 09:20:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x151f97…
08-25 08:43:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x4de4ee…
08-25 08:42:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x919cbf…
08-25 03:13:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 25?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x28beb2…
08-24 16:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2f621c…
08-24 05:50:27	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x25d6c3…
08-24 04:22:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x1612cf…
08-24 04:20:51	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 24?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x25059d…
08-24 01:01:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x188f70…
08-23 23:19:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x58d2ee…
08-23 19:31:27	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 24?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb6baf7…
08-23 19:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 24?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1aeea4…
08-23 19:23:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 24?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x086e6a…
08-23 17:24:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x80ae1c…
08-23 13:00:25	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 24?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x68095b…
08-23 09:41:10	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0d9c9…
08-14 21:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 14?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xc2f194…
08-14 21:18:57	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x4ef564…
08-14 13:08:43	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x7ebf50…
08-14 11:15:39	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 14?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xfb4728…
08-14 11:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe070b3…
08-14 11:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc03b0d…
08-14 11:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb1f6cc…
08-14 10:49:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 14?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xafae70…
08-14 10:34:25	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 14?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x547d25…
08-14 09:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc6ae04…
08-14 09:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x513cde…
08-14 09:45:39	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 14?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0x746e7d…
08-14 08:31:51	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xdbc3b1…
08-14 06:15:03	bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xaec598…
08-14 05:21:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x92bfb3…
08-14 04:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on August 14?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa19f2a…
08-14 03:57:37	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb78786…
08-14 00:42:42	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xb60466…
08-13 23:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on August 14?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc93859…
08-13 23:16:25	bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1b64a9…
08-13 22:16:45	bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x63864d…
08-13 21:49:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 14?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x6a3201…
08-13 19:52:57	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x04ce76…
08-13 17:40:57	bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x9e03b7…
08-13 14:49:57	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe157cf…
08-13 14:49:57	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc65a0d…
08-13 14:24:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1253d9…
08-13 10:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x6ac537…