Frozen-Horror — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$192

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

74.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$25

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-30

last 10-30 15:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 71% +$223

Other

17% 25% -$19

Politics

4% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+50	$18	28¢	$14	-$5	10-12 06:01
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+200	$20	6¢	$11	-$9	10-12 06:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?	4	$219	268	161	+108	Yes	+$46	08-27 14:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$95	120	120	+0	No	-$8	09-10 12:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:35 UTC	3	$77	57	33	+23	Up	+$9	06-04 06:37
will bitcoin dip to 61k on june 3	1	$70	79	0	+79	No	+$9	06-04 02:44
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	3	$68	85	49	+36	No	-$6	07-17 12:34
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	1	$50	53	0	+53	Yes	+$3	06-01 15:23
ethereum up or down july 16 2026 10am et	3	$50	68	0	+68	Up	+$18	07-16 14:59
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	5	$42	194	194	+0	No	-$7	10-30 15:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	3	$40	55	0	+55	Up	+$15	08-03 07:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	1	$34	100	0	+100	Yes	+$66	10-12 08:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	1	$30	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	06-01 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	1	$30	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	08-03 07:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:40 UTC	2	$29	38	38	+0	Down	-$17	06-04 06:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	1	$25	26	0	+26	Down	+$1	06-03 15:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:15 UTC	1	$23	23	0	+23	Up	+$0	06-04 06:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:00 UTC	1	$23	23	0	+23	Up	+$0	06-04 06:03
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$20	200	0	+200	open	—	10-12 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	Down	+$0	06-01 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$20	20	0	+20	Up	+$0	06-03 14:38
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$18	50	0	+50	open	—	10-12 06:01
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	1	$18	98	0	+98	Yes	+$80	10-12 08:24
bitcoin up or down august 28 2026 5am et	1	$17	20	0	+20	Down	+$3	08-28 09:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$15	15	0	+15	Down	+$0	06-01 03:13
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	1	$13	30	0	+30	No	-$13	08-03 05:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$12	533	533	+0	No	-$7	09-07 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Down	+$1	06-03 14:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$10	22	0	+22	Down	+$12	06-03 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 08:35 UTC	1	$10	11	0	+11	Down	+$1	08-07 08:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 08:20 UTC	1	$10	16	0	+16	Down	+$6	08-07 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	2	$10	22	0	+22	Up	+$12	06-01 02:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:05:30	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	101	7¢	$7	0xcf811e…
10-30 10:30:49	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	93	12¢	$11	0xd72a0c…
10-12 08:24:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	98	18¢	$18	0x1fa7f3…
10-12 08:23:39	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	140	13¢	$18	0x94cbd7…
10-12 08:22:12	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x394ca9…
10-12 08:21:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xc338c3…
10-12 06:01:44	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x8b543e…
10-12 06:00:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x20d282…
10-12 05:52:14	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	29	11¢	$3	0xe3554e…
09-10 12:49:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	120	36¢	$43	0x0c715b…
09-07 16:16:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	533	0¢	$2	0x94397d…
09-02 13:12:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	43¢	$52	0xea7ebe…
08-28 09:37:09	bitcoin up or down august 28 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x1d9afd…
08-27 15:46:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2069c8…
08-27 14:36:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	108	59¢	$64	0xa81087…
08-27 09:58:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?	Yes	SELL	161	49¢	$79	0x3b3d0b…
08-27 09:20:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x718265…
08-27 09:16:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	101	45¢	$45	0x62c566…
08-07 08:51:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xb7fc47…
08-07 08:36:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x3a57dd…
08-07 08:33:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xb5086b…
08-07 08:20:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xdc2273…
08-06 13:35:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	2¢	$6	0x47b9c8…
08-03 07:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3d9530…
08-03 07:29:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x86cac7…
08-03 07:24:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x77a0a0…
08-03 07:19:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xe53f01…
08-03 07:18:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x8a163d…
08-03 07:17:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xb25a29…
08-03 07:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x5fd9b0…
08-03 05:57:09	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x560435…
07-23 08:59:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x88511a…
07-23 08:49:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x44d652…
07-21 08:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x801ca7…
07-21 08:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xaf71fb…
07-17 12:34:10	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0xf187aa…
07-17 03:48:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	26¢	$13	0x313055…
07-16 14:59:43	ethereum up or down july 16 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa257a8…
07-16 14:58:43	ethereum up or down july 16 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x2e1f2b…
07-16 14:49:37	ethereum up or down july 16 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	39	90¢	$35	0xc6c641…
07-16 10:54:29	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xd37b02…
06-04 06:43:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	38	17¢	$6	0x0eb1f2…
06-04 06:41:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	38	61¢	$23	0x1658e3…
06-04 06:37:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xe6eab8…
06-04 06:36:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:35 UTC	Up	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x89c912…
06-04 06:35:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	33	69¢	$23	0x1aeb34…
06-04 06:33:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:30 UTC	Up	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0x195ef5…
06-04 06:31:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xcf7c15…
06-04 06:18:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x46b0a3…
06-04 06:14:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x80f06d…
06-04 06:03:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x86a3a7…
06-04 05:53:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xbe5539…
06-04 05:47:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xb78286…
06-04 02:44:52	will bitcoin dip to 61k on june 3	No	BUY	79	89¢	$70	0xefaa42…
06-03 15:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x716a65…
06-03 14:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x962a6d…
06-03 14:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x973efa…
06-03 14:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x8ebd10…
06-03 14:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1b9fee…
06-03 14:38:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf1ba6b…
06-03 14:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x5fc4a7…
06-03 14:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe22632…
06-03 14:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x44b0fb…
06-03 14:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x87c7e9…
06-01 15:23:52	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xbb290d…
06-01 09:21:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7c93d2…
06-01 09:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x2b965f…
06-01 08:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x81f3ce…
06-01 08:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0d31d0…
06-01 08:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x1f114d…
06-01 08:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8c7a3c…
06-01 08:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x503fa0…
06-01 07:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x713347…
06-01 03:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x7820be…
06-01 02:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc677b9…
06-01 02:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x8fd66f…
06-01 02:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe98ea6…
05-30 10:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa626b5…
05-30 09:38:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0xaf418a…
05-30 09:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	4	35¢	$2	0x523401…
05-30 09:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6a9403…
05-30 09:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x211c00…
05-30 09:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x91ffe0…