Minor-Wildebeest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$580

Unrealized P&L

+$76

Hit rate

26.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$176

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-07 20:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

42% 11% -$411

Politics

32% 57% +$454

Crypto

21% 0% -$600

Sports

6% 0% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes		+487	$100	36¢	$176	+$76	10-07 20:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$600	135,000	0	+135,000	No	-$600	06-03 16:16
us x venezuela military engagement by march 31 2026 264 352 211 137 861 788 622 336 869 453	1	$400	0	400	-400	Yes	$0	01-03 10:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$360	545	545	+0	Yes	-$120	01-29 17:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$300	625	0	+625	Yes	+$325	01-29 08:49
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	1	$200	792	0	+792	No	-$200	02-25 10:24
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	3	$177	309	309	+0	Seahawks	-$23	02-09 00:34
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$173	169	169	+0	Yes	+$53	01-14 20:10
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$145	133	133	+0	Yes	+$65	02-28 19:04
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	3	$100	487	0	+487	open	—	10-07 20:19
will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	1	$100	189	0	+189	No	-$100	01-06 11:47
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$80	211	0	+211	Yes	+$131	01-06 10:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$70	159	0	+159	No	-$70	04-17 22:57
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$40	400	0	+400	No	-$40	01-29 09:12
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	2	$40	1,127	0	+1,127	No	-$40	07-12 02:58
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	1	$30	145	0	+145	No	+$115	03-12 23:54
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$30	102	0	+102	Argentina	-$30	07-12 03:16
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	2	$24	96	96	+0	No	-$16	07-19 21:09
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$20	73	0	+73	Spain	-$20	07-19 21:12
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	1	$10	59	0	+59	No	-$10	01-06 10:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 20:19:25	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	146	27¢	$40	0x22de61…
09-22 08:50:36	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	227	18¢	$40	0xffdfaa…
09-22 08:50:00	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	114	18¢	$20	0xd4878c…
07-19 21:12:49	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	73	27¢	$20	0xf17513…
07-19 21:09:31	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	SELL	96	4¢	$4	0x7730d9…
07-19 20:30:58	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	96	21¢	$20	0x1f0be4…
07-12 03:16:02	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	102	29¢	$30	0x4f7a59…
07-12 02:58:04	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$20	0x60ea37…
07-12 02:30:32	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	127	16¢	$20	0x94e6fc…
06-03 16:16:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75,000	0¢	$300	0x794ce3…
06-03 00:23:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$100	0x495f5c…
06-03 00:21:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40,000	0¢	$200	0xb63af5…
04-17 22:57:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	44¢	$70	0xac6b72…
03-12 23:54:45	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	145	21¢	$30	0x9b1e80…
02-28 19:04:05	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	133	79¢	$105	0xa60196…
02-25 10:24:28	Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	792	25¢	$200	0x3a8b56…
02-09 00:34:13	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	SELL	309	25¢	$77	0x2dcf6f…
02-09 00:07:15	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	188	32¢	$60	0xbc06b5…
02-08 23:23:31	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	121	33¢	$40	0x67e120…
01-29 17:40:44	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	545	22¢	$120	0x0b4b42…
01-29 09:12:38	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0x75bda0…
01-29 08:49:00	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	625	48¢	$300	0xf36a15…
01-29 08:44:04	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	364	55¢	$200	0xaa0f47…
01-25 21:43:22	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	182	22¢	$40	0x9fc711…
01-14 20:10:44	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	169	67¢	$113	0x96e364…
01-06 11:47:07	will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x5564a5…
01-06 10:59:17	will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x74dd2d…
01-06 10:53:59	israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	211	38¢	$80	0x458cf2…
01-06 10:52:31	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	36¢	$60	0x2c9a4d…
01-05 08:36:05	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0x2f726f…
01-03 10:30:03	us x venezuela military engagement by march 31 2026 264 352 211 137 861 788 622 336 869 453	Yes	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0xbf94b2…