Actual-Seabass — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$96

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

1.8%

Resolved

Trades

554

lifetime

Volume

$17.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

60% 0% $-25

Tech

20% — —

Crypto

13% 50% $-72

Sports

7% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No		+100	$18	12¢	$12	$-6	07-03 13:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	27	$915	1,008	1,008	+0	open	—	04-01 13:54
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	10	$798	1,162	343	+819	open	—	07-07 19:25
will apple announce the iphone 17e by february 28	28	$759	580	580	+0	open	—	02-17 15:01
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	10	$544	623	231	+392	open	—	06-30 17:02
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	31	$543	1,120	1,116	+4	open	—	03-06 11:37
grok 4pt4 released by july 17	6	$539	382	382	+0	open	—	07-06 07:58
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	12	$514	695	475	+220	open	—	07-17 19:31
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	8	$418	195	380	-185	open	—	03-30 16:45
grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	6	$380	280	280	+0	open	—	02-15 20:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$347	443	397	+46	open	—	06-01 16:01
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	9	$345	234	326	-92	open	—	02-05 11:20
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	3	$331	290	290	+0	open	—	03-31 22:59
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	14	$303	380	226	+154	open	—	03-09 21:27
will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	11	$298	565	0	+565	open	—	07-21 18:17
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	8	$297	300	282	+18	open	—	03-30 20:36
cs2 vit fal2 2026 01 24	2	$264	200	200	+0	open	—	01-24 17:49
will mathieu zywoo herbaut win the hltv player of the year award	7	$260	0	277	-277	open	—	01-02 16:07
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	6	$260	534	0	+534	open	—	06-30 17:03
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	6	$251	433	433	+0	open	—	07-07 13:54
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	9	$245	177	177	+0	open	—	03-21 11:23
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$242	800	0	+800	open	—	04-25 09:15
dota2 xtreme flc 2026 02 27	2	$240	170	170	+0	open	—	02-27 19:59
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	1	$228	400	0	+400	open	—	07-08 17:31
will mlb opening night yankees vs giants be the top us netflix show this week	8	$224	400	379	+21	open	—	03-31 19:54
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	7	$212	100	345	-245	open	—	03-28 14:56
will norway win the most medal points in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$203	200	100	+100	open	—	02-16 17:59
dota2 bb4 ty 2026 03 24 game1	2	$201	130	130	+0	open	—	03-24 15:26
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	3	$185	317	0	+317	open	—	07-08 18:23
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	5	$177	300	0	+300	open	—	07-08 16:20
cs2 pain hero 2026 01 17 game2	3	$174	120	120	+0	open	—	01-17 14:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 18:17:51	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	9	36¢	$3	0xed85c9…
07-21 18:17:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	47	36¢	$17	0x10491c…
07-21 18:16:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xbb199f…
07-21 18:16:13	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	78	36¢	$28	0xb323dc…
07-20 08:05:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x212b21…
07-19 13:11:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0xbd722a…
07-19 13:08:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	130	54¢	$70	0xe908b5…
07-19 12:37:39	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	200	24¢	$48	0x358f6b…
07-19 12:17:12	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	77	61¢	$47	0xbca5fa…
07-19 12:01:07	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0xbd924a…
07-19 11:56:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x639ad1…
07-19 11:28:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0xf82c46…
07-19 09:06:43	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	189	40¢	$76	0xab482d…
07-19 08:59:51	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xa89ef7…
07-19 07:01:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x0488bd…
07-17 19:31:48	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	174	65¢	$113	0xf5a9bb…
07-17 19:28:57	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x084db0…
07-17 19:28:51	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x4ce2c4…
07-17 19:28:39	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	16	65¢	$11	0x28ef81…
07-17 18:07:57	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	SELL	475	34¢	$162	0xf3cae9…
07-16 14:52:46	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0xaea88b…
07-16 13:54:11	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xa0314f…
07-16 13:03:41	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	55	34¢	$19	0x9e33d8…
07-16 13:02:56	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x1db092…
07-16 08:36:29	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	322	47¢	$151	0xc7a08a…
07-16 08:35:16	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0x48156c…
07-15 19:31:19	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	300	49¢	$147	0xda24a5…
07-15 16:57:59	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	53	39¢	$21	0xd0b528…
07-08 18:23:25	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x67f1b6…
07-08 18:23:20	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x75574d…
07-08 18:21:22	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0xd64d01…
07-08 17:31:08	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	400	57¢	$228	0x1eb553…
07-08 16:20:20	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	63	59¢	$37	0x20042d…
07-08 16:18:47	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xa5e415…
07-07 20:43:49	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2ce5e1…
07-07 19:54:05	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	22	59¢	$13	0xb9ab8d…
07-07 19:25:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	218	66¢	$145	0xf6d1b6…
07-07 18:33:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	15	70¢	$11	0x68d6e0…
07-07 18:31:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xb8e958…
07-07 18:31:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	73¢	$3	0xc75410…
07-07 18:28:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	161	75¢	$121	0x37eb92…
07-07 18:27:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	315	24¢	$75	0x690b1e…
07-07 18:27:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	29	24¢	$7	0x3a395e…
07-07 18:26:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	291	24¢	$69	0x21e9b9…
07-07 18:26:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	52	24¢	$12	0x6a4594…
07-07 17:52:07	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xf7819c…
07-07 13:54:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	217	6¢	$13	0x3ccc0a…
07-07 13:53:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	400	85¢	$340	0x974a3b…
07-06 15:53:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	217	16¢	$35	0xe2839a…
07-06 07:58:35	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	Yes	SELL	382	90¢	$343	0x1c4d71…
07-06 02:03:46	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	Yes	BUY	67	71¢	$47	0xc9d02f…
07-05 23:38:22	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x766ff6…
07-05 00:29:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	300	39¢	$117	0x5263ef…
07-04 23:53:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0xdcb006…
07-04 16:14:34	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xec4d1b…
07-04 16:14:23	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x710957…
07-04 16:14:14	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x820d8c…
07-04 15:35:58	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x2cec19…
07-04 08:29:20	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	Yes	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0x66b5c8…
07-04 07:37:32	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	Yes	BUY	266	50¢	$133	0xe438dc…
07-04 07:15:08	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	Yes	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0xafda8a…
07-03 23:10:38	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x54381f…
07-03 19:28:25	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Australia	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x19cca6…
07-03 13:48:55	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xf815fd…
07-02 09:06:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$14	0x58722a…
07-02 08:27:14	grok 4pt4 released by july 17	Yes	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0x7eda59…
07-02 08:10:35	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	103	65¢	$67	0x2fa990…
06-30 17:03:01	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	110	42¢	$46	0xcb8653…
06-30 17:02:46	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	131	82¢	$107	0x99c7ba…
06-30 09:29:37	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0xac2968…
06-30 09:28:28	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	62	52¢	$32	0xa7b96b…
06-30 09:22:58	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xefc654…
06-30 09:22:50	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x2bd745…
06-30 09:21:44	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0x3b9eb6…
06-30 09:19:47	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	172	46¢	$79	0x6b9c75…
06-30 09:19:37	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	89	53¢	$47	0x9fa4c3…
06-30 09:19:32	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x7b0096…
06-30 09:18:52	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x11f0af…
06-30 09:16:56	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x77aded…
06-30 09:12:53	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	93	66¢	$61	0x405b1e…
06-30 09:11:13	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xf6ae9b…
06-30 09:10:02	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0xf17bad…
06-30 09:07:22	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	150	55¢	$82	0xfa91a1…
06-21 13:59:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	240	50¢	$120	0x4e06d4…
06-20 16:20:10	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 team total home 1pt5	Under	BUY	130	41¢	$53	0xbc7f4d…
06-20 16:17:56	cs2 ts7 fal2 2026 06 20	Team Falcons	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0x5853a5…
06-14 13:27:48	cs2 mglz mnte 2026 06 14	TheMongolz	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x4e861d…
06-12 13:48:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	14	32¢	$4	0xb64154…
06-12 13:25:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x15754a…
06-12 13:25:04	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x9f334c…
06-12 13:25:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	31	32¢	$10	0x5102c6…
06-12 08:21:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	161	41¢	$66	0x045566…
06-11 14:24:39	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x260465…
06-01 16:01:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	58¢	$40	0x6179d9…
06-01 16:01:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	58¢	$16	0xc5fd3e…
06-01 16:01:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xbea1ef…
06-01 12:10:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	192	72¢	$139	0x328b19…
06-01 12:05:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xea1b8e…
06-01 12:05:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe0a4d5…
06-01 12:05:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x9cf175…