Legal-Gauge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$447

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

42.9%

Resolved

851

Trades

27,913

lifetime

Volume

$9.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-09 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 164 days

Categories

Other

54% 28% -$78

Politics

40% 25% -$263

Sports

4% 25% -$10

Crypto

1% 29% -$36

Pop-Culture

1% 17% -$46

Tech

1% 22% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+666	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	08-04 23:35
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	—	-585	-$1	0¢	$-1	+$0	05-11 14:33
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes		-499	-$1	0¢	$-1	+$0	05-13 19:41
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes		+1	$0	0¢	$0	$0	10-09 03:35
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	—	-0	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	07-19 20:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	313	$216	66,426	47,378	+19,048	No	$0	02-23 16:40
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	252	$208	48,000	40,706	+7,294	No	+$10	02-28 11:54
will the us collect between 1t and 2t in revenue in 2025	1,809	$206	72,885	55,963	+16,922	No	+$8	02-21 07:32
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	282	$205	60,500	46,617	+13,883	No	-$5	03-04 16:10
will the us collect between 500b and 1t in revenue in 2025	821	$150	44,891	30,195	+14,697	No	+$6	02-20 18:52
will the us collect more than 2t in revenue in 2025	1,409	$149	51,966	38,757	+13,209	No	+$3	02-21 04:51
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	192	$143	42,000	32,986	+9,014	No	-$1	03-04 11:40
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	181	$130	48,500	34,057	+14,443	No	-$2	03-04 16:10
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	185	$123	41,146	32,012	+9,134	No	+$5	01-25 13:01
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be greater than 520m by january 31	254	$102	38,922	31,018	+7,904	No	+$3	01-31 02:37
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 480m and 520m by january 31	222	$94	34,714	26,142	+8,572	No	-$3	01-29 19:41
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	159	$92	35,500	27,205	+8,295	Yes	+$8	02-18 05:14
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	136	$88	33,000	26,764	+6,236	No	+$4	03-20 14:10
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	485	$83	30,307	23,927	+6,379	No	-$3	05-19 22:40
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	69	$81	19,500	17,424	+2,076	No	-$3	03-04 16:10
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	64	$80	31,000	26,147	+4,853	No	+$8	02-10 08:19
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?	194	$79	29,370	23,613	+5,757	No	-$8	01-31 21:47
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	257	$74	17,500	12,043	+5,457	No	-$4	02-13 23:47
nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026	87	$74	19,000	16,024	+2,976	No	+$8	01-09 14:05
will mrbeasts next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1 974	151	$72	28,500	22,213	+6,287	No	+$0	01-14 16:54
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	110	$61	30,000	19,432	+10,568	No	+$1	02-28 19:06
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	177	$58	13,474	13,220	+254	No	+$10	02-22 14:40
han duck soo in jail by january 31	24	$58	9,500	8,909	+591	Yes	+$28	01-21 22:40
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	102	$58	11,066	9,097	+1,969	No	+$0	04-14 04:28
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	80	$55	13,000	10,022	+2,978	No	+$1	02-14 03:51
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	44	$53	9,500	6,325	+3,175	Yes	-$1	02-23 08:52
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	120	$52	11,500	8,135	+3,364	No	-$2	04-06 02:00
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	22	$51	6,500	6,482	+18	Yes	+$27	01-23 20:50
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	31	$51	16,247	11,458	+4,789	No	-$2	01-31 22:31
Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	134	$51	17,884	11,505	+6,379	No	+$4	02-12 08:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 16:41:29	Will Trenten Merrill win The Bachelorette Season 22?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x2250c1…
10-09 03:35:47	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	0¢	$0	0xccaac8…
10-09 03:01:48	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x2afbdd…
10-09 03:01:21	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x34edfa…
10-09 02:48:51	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x0eea18…
10-09 02:46:45	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x23c9bf…
10-09 02:03:15	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x8840d3…
10-09 01:42:21	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	0¢	$0	0xa47dfe…
10-09 01:34:09	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xcccf46…
10-09 01:29:50	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xd6b85d…
10-09 00:34:51	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0x1b0a26…
10-08 23:55:09	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0xdf1bc7…
10-08 22:15:44	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xa0b572…
10-08 19:27:36	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xea8fd1…
10-08 18:56:47	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0xe471ac…
10-08 18:53:33	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x1db08e…
10-08 18:51:05	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x803067…
10-08 05:01:46	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xd09831…
10-08 04:59:07	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x4f3703…
10-08 04:58:32	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xd80341…
10-08 04:57:53	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x7f8dd4…
10-08 04:55:37	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0x81c2a5…
10-08 01:56:34	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x42b552…
10-07 20:36:06	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xf6f560…
10-07 17:56:37	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x4169e5…
10-07 17:03:55	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	0¢	$0	0x2d7bf7…
10-07 11:37:34	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xe2992e…
10-07 01:56:54	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0xd6b63d…
10-07 01:47:44	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x813892…
10-06 23:36:26	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xeec993…
10-06 22:47:50	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xdf00ed…
10-06 22:28:55	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x79f176…
10-06 21:21:41	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xb3e921…
10-06 19:11:11	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x463651…
10-06 15:41:08	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0x6cf064…
10-06 15:36:50	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0xfccf39…
10-06 15:36:03	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x2279a9…
10-06 13:15:31	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xa3e1a3…
10-06 12:17:58	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x30b498…
10-06 11:55:21	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x1af8ee…
10-06 11:55:04	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x28b62c…
10-06 09:24:52	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xcdbf76…
10-06 05:28:09	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x35ba12…
10-06 03:59:55	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xd33c51…
10-06 03:33:18	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x929db1…
10-06 01:44:46	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x368115…
10-06 01:39:22	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	0¢	$0	0x2147ce…
10-06 01:29:05	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x637769…
10-06 00:22:22	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xaf70c5…
10-05 23:56:32	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x769b7a…
10-05 22:38:50	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x09e700…
10-05 22:33:49	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x91192d…
10-05 20:00:55	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xe2fbac…
10-05 18:14:16	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x493509…
10-05 16:48:58	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x1666d3…
10-05 16:48:43	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xd9c92b…
10-05 15:30:37	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x91736b…
10-05 14:52:29	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x8b4d2f…
10-05 12:17:44	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x126ff5…
10-05 04:26:20	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xba11ba…
10-05 03:20:38	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xdb7172…
10-04 20:15:02	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xe4e5c4…
10-04 18:18:26	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa1b54d…
10-04 17:06:50	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0xfc8fc7…
10-04 17:06:13	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	0¢	$0	0x1f634c…
10-04 16:59:23	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0x7399ba…
10-04 13:11:49	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xe012e0…
10-04 10:18:46	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xfb7c6c…
10-04 02:15:53	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	0¢	$1	0x34fe93…
10-03 21:25:35	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x3f8d34…
10-03 19:17:34	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x88f934…
10-03 16:46:08	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x014ba8…
10-03 13:18:41	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x8a0a72…
10-03 12:16:35	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xd636ca…
10-03 02:45:47	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	0¢	$0	0x3878c7…
08-28 07:07:22	Will FDP win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	34	0¢	$0	0x1dd747…
08-26 08:59:49	Will MiniMax be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x83edc5…
08-20 12:27:25	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xecd44e…
08-20 02:44:39	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe921f4…
08-18 11:06:00	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3f1317…
08-18 11:05:58	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0xd54f21…
08-18 11:05:58	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x2b49a3…
08-18 11:05:57	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xc57621…
08-18 06:37:04	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x360242…
08-18 00:48:07	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x2298c0…
08-18 00:47:09	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa78668…
08-17 21:54:30	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x205b92…
08-17 20:41:40	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0x696e81…
08-17 20:39:37	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x7176e1…
08-17 20:39:37	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x1ab807…
08-17 20:39:36	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x7e8b03…
08-17 03:16:04	Will Marcos Pontes be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?	Yes	SELL	116	0¢	$0	0xde931a…
08-16 00:25:45	Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0x6cb74c…
08-15 13:47:48	Will Marcos Pontes be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?	Yes	BUY	122	0¢	$0	0xf114cf…
08-15 12:17:01	Will Lightricks have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x452056…
08-15 12:16:55	Will Luma AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf413ff…
08-15 12:16:49	Will Tencent be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xbac6e5…
08-15 11:59:40	Will Marcos Pontes be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x046a59…
08-15 11:57:45	Will Marcos Pontes be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xa9ce47…
08-15 07:15:52	Will Shirley Saucerman win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xdea829…