Flawed-Chief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.97K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

239

Trades

417

lifetime

Volume

$43.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-28 17:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 72% -$1,171

Other

19% 8% -$2,201

Politics

5% 0% -$1,507

Sports

0% 0% -$87

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will mrbeasts next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3	2	$2.1K	2,481	2,481	+0	No	+$2,012	03-10 15:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 02:25 UTC	1	$1.7K	1,719	0	+1,719	Down	+$18	03-11 02:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 18:45 UTC	1	$1.6K	1,772	0	+1,772	Up	+$142	03-10 18:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 18:35 UTC	1	$1.6K	1,630	0	+1,630	Down	+$19	03-10 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 18:30 UTC	1	$1.5K	1,614	0	+1,614	Up	+$153	03-10 18:34
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	3	$940	8,426	8,019	+406	Yes	+$340	04-29 08:02
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	4	$859	933	2,202	-1,268	Yes	-$717	02-27 13:51
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:25 UTC	2	$685	349	349	+0	Down	+$11	03-20 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:30 UTC	4	$565	345	343	+2	Down	+$23	03-14 06:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:45 UTC	1	$516	526	0	+526	Up	+$11	03-11 07:48
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?	3	$512	11,667	0	+11,667	Yes	-$512	02-11 18:55
will mrbeasts latest video get between 55 and 60 million views on week 1	3	$504	18,676	0	+18,676	No	-$504	02-12 19:06
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 21:05 UTC	1	$504	599	0	+599	Up	-$504	03-20 21:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:40 UTC	1	$495	516	0	+516	Down	+$21	03-11 07:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:35 UTC	2	$479	243	243	+0	Down	+$2	03-14 06:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 05:30 UTC	1	$471	510	0	+510	Down	+$40	03-11 05:34
will iran strike israel on march 10	9	$466	34,751	429	+34,322	Yes	-$339	03-15 12:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:30 UTC	1	$466	496	0	+496	Down	+$30	03-11 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:25 UTC	1	$457	466	0	+466	Down	+$9	03-11 07:29
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 21:00 UTC	1	$445	505	0	+505	Up	+$60	03-20 21:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 06:25 UTC	2	$422	221	221	+0	Down	+$15	03-14 06:31
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:55 UTC	1	$404	446	0	+446	Down	+$42	03-20 20:59
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 432	3	$398	5,805	0	+5,805	No	-$398	03-22 13:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 07:00 UTC	3	$380	529	479	+50	Down	+$11	02-25 07:04
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 31 april 6	2	$374	14,045	0	+14,045	Yes	-$374	04-06 00:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:50 UTC	1	$372	405	0	+405	Down	+$33	03-20 20:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:20 UTC	1	$370	460	0	+460	Down	+$90	03-11 07:24
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:40 UTC	1	$358	372	0	+372	Up	+$14	03-20 20:44
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:35 UTC	1	$348	358	0	+358	Up	+$10	03-20 20:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$338	3,314	3,314	+0	No	-$82	05-07 18:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 17:42:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,600	0¢	$11	0x0bf8c2…
10-28 17:41:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,216	4¢	$45	0xdb74ea…
10-05 16:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x90dea3…
10-05 16:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xd79f9a…
10-05 15:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x9ea3c7…
10-05 15:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0xd8fd06…
10-05 15:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x821650…
10-05 15:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	97	82¢	$80	0x5191a6…
10-05 15:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x6196e8…
10-05 15:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	95	85¢	$80	0x17156a…
10-05 15:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x632e4f…
10-05 15:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x09d186…
09-23 06:51:46	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	No	BUY	4,622	1¢	$54	0x7685c5…
09-16 18:23:13	Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x512fe8…
09-16 18:22:13	Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	1,855	9¢	$175	0x8f8ea3…
09-16 18:20:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 18:15 UTC	Up	SELL	156	99¢	$155	0x43cf17…
09-16 18:15:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x43238c…
09-16 17:19:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	122	15¢	$18	0x297d85…
09-16 15:48:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	513	13¢	$67	0x52a7dd…
08-12 15:03:18	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 5 2026 20260722225036929	Yes	BUY	51,300	0¢	$51	0x4d519a…
08-10 09:56:46	will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin august 4 10	No	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0xd72bf8…
08-10 09:56:16	will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin august 4 10	No	BUY	548	22¢	$123	0x08d409…
07-29 17:22:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,983	0¢	$9	0x4e3338…
07-29 17:21:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,932	0¢	$10	0x4da990…
07-29 12:18:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,493	0¢	$7	0xb0cece…
07-29 12:17:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,455	0¢	$21	0x68f437…
07-29 12:16:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,000	0¢	$12	0xaa520f…
07-29 07:30:08	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,115	0¢	$18	0x94157b…
07-29 07:29:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,250	0¢	$13	0x52328c…
07-20 13:18:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0xe478e0…
07-20 13:18:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x0a87d2…
07-20 13:13:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x8c2e54…
07-20 13:13:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x4aa884…
07-20 13:12:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,510	0¢	$14	0x2213f3…
07-20 13:12:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	758	7¢	$51	0xba5f1e…
07-20 08:18:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,510	0¢	$21	0x70a888…
07-20 08:17:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	758	7¢	$50	0x48b208…
07-13 08:35:02	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase july 7 13	Yes	BUY	201	22¢	$44	0x24911c…
07-06 13:28:19	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 30 july 6	Yes	BUY	1,440	0¢	$3	0x902850…
07-06 07:57:58	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 30 july 6	Yes	BUY	14,784	1¢	$161	0x645062…
06-17 16:38:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x188f37…
06-17 16:36:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	26,393	0¢	$79	0xe61e8f…
06-17 03:07:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x68214d…
06-15 14:26:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15,684	0¢	$78	0xbea10f…
06-01 16:55:09	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	SELL	165	0¢	$1	0x3a1059…
05-31 14:03:17	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	165	37¢	$60	0x0fd4fd…
05-28 19:50:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	540	4¢	$21	0xe57d28…
05-28 19:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xc0d981…
05-28 19:41:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	57	43¢	$25	0x79cba8…
05-28 19:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	77	94¢	$73	0x4895e6…
05-28 19:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xf27a0e…
05-28 19:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xb8a727…
05-28 19:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x7409fa…
05-28 19:00:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,482	4¢	$57	0x664d3f…
05-28 15:14:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,482	6¢	$95	0x5d9369…
05-23 09:30:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,534	2¢	$35	0x8ccf55…
05-22 08:51:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,534	2¢	$35	0xed4f7f…
05-18 05:20:27	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?	No	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0x8eea0f…
05-18 05:19:26	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?	No	BUY	1,974	5¢	$95	0x58cc08…
05-17 12:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x600d1c…
05-17 12:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x9af459…
05-17 12:29:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xcef213…
05-17 12:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	17	26¢	$4	0xf9bab0…
05-17 12:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x9993fd…
05-12 20:07:40	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14,700	0¢	$15	0x84196f…
05-07 18:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	133	96¢	$128	0xd91482…
05-07 18:23:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,314	4¢	$128	0xdfc931…
05-06 14:21:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,314	6¢	$210	0xd09f76…
04-29 13:55:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,877	0¢	$9	0x68bfa3…
04-29 13:55:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0x6b3b21…
04-29 08:50:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,460	0¢	$5	0x585c70…
04-29 08:02:50	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	SELL	7,859	8¢	$625	0x93fd1f…
04-29 07:32:40	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	SELL	160	10¢	$15	0x00a1d3…
04-28 15:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xc4fd36…
04-28 14:54:54	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,070	0¢	$3	0xc25203…
04-28 14:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x8c03e6…
04-28 14:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x42092d…
04-28 14:16:52	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0xca98c3…
04-28 14:16:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	4,333	0¢	$13	0x382d5f…
04-28 06:21:56	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6,673	0¢	$20	0x1fe328…
04-28 06:16:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11,000	0¢	$22	0x5dab03…
04-28 06:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x18f5a2…
04-28 06:11:58	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	8,426	4¢	$300	0x06cedb…
04-28 04:30:58	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,013	0¢	$3	0x620830…
04-28 04:29:46	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,366	0¢	$3	0x14e91c…
04-27 07:45:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xbbc51b…
04-27 07:38:52	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5,325	0¢	$11	0xa162a3…
04-27 07:36:36	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	No	BUY	2,576	1¢	$25	0xb437e2…
04-27 07:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	61	78¢	$47	0xfbae08…
04-27 07:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	49	65¢	$32	0x84c9b5…
04-27 07:12:14	Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	32	70¢	$23	0x4cc9ac…
04-27 07:09:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	22,600	0¢	$23	0x09e4f8…
04-25 06:29:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9,660	0¢	$48	0xf2172b…
04-25 06:12:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15,448	0¢	$77	0x2e8eba…
04-25 05:30:02	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	219	90¢	$197	0x112cc7…
04-25 05:27:54	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,437	1¢	$15	0xb7325a…
04-25 05:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	213	93¢	$198	0xcc579c…
04-25 05:14:42	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	199	99¢	$196	0x3bf5f9…
04-25 05:09:42	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	196	99¢	$194	0x326263…
04-24 06:20:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	7,600	0¢	$15	0x72c4b0…