Mild-Hike — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$151

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$97

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 05-16 08:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% 100% +$17

Crypto

33% 100% +$3

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	+154	$50	30¢	$45	$-5	05-12 22:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	+115	$40	33¢	$38	$-3	05-12 19:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	-50	$-16	22¢	$-11	+$6	05-12 21:17
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$3	2¢	$4	+$1	05-12 20:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 08:36:18	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	2¢	$2	0xbe9398…
05-15 22:03:41	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	61¢	$15	0x26ebf6…
05-12 22:01:12	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	154	33¢	$50	0x869e1f…
05-12 21:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x4e489e…
05-12 21:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x0e3976…
05-12 21:17:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x9ee8ba…
05-12 20:55:05	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x33bb58…
05-12 19:41:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	35¢	$40	0xff04a4…
05-08 04:46:59	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0x116a32…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	1	$50	154	0	+154	open	—	05-12 22:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$40	115	0	+115	open	—	05-12 19:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	1	$16	0	50	-50	open	—	05-12 21:17
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	1	$15	0	25	-25	open	—	05-15 22:03
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	1	$14	31	0	+31	Yes	+$17	05-08 04:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$10	13	0	+13	Up	+$3	05-12 21:41
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	1	$3	150	0	+150	open	—	05-12 20:55
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	1	$2	128	0	+128	open	—	05-16 08:36