Ample-Scarification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

2.7%

Resolved

Trades

235

lifetime

Volume

$8.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$34

1 position

First seen

2026-03-19

last 06-22 11:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

64% — —

Politics

32% 25% +$2

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No		+36	$34	94¢	$34	+$0	06-22 11:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	10	$444	416	416	+0	open	—	05-08 20:21
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	10	$431	225	225	+0	open	—	04-07 07:19
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	6	$316	160	160	+0	open	—	04-25 09:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	6	$166	263	263	+0	open	—	05-12 12:17
will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	4	$165	245	245	+0	open	—	03-30 04:04
will la u win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	2	$165	83	83	+0	open	—	04-14 06:48
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	5	$163	84	84	+0	open	—	03-30 21:42
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$162	82	82	+0	open	—	04-27 02:11
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?	2	$162	82	82	+0	open	—	04-26 11:13
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	2	$161	84	84	+0	open	—	03-23 23:15
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 380 399	2	$161	81	81	+0	open	—	03-24 15:30
will iran strike turkey in march	2	$160	84	84	+0	open	—	03-25 11:15
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$160	86	86	+0	open	—	04-20 13:25
will kuwait strike iran by march 31	2	$159	82	82	+0	open	—	03-23 15:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$158	81	81	+0	open	—	05-12 03:05
will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$157	85	85	+0	open	—	04-06 16:39
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$155	81	81	+0	open	—	04-22 21:21
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$154	78	78	+0	open	—	04-22 13:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$154	166	166	+0	open	—	05-11 14:26
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	5	$154	179	179	+0	open	—	04-30 18:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	6	$153	215	215	+0	No	$-0	05-09 16:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	4	$151	79	79	+0	No	+$0	05-03 06:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$150	76	76	+0	open	—	04-03 14:47
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	4	$149	78	78	+0	open	—	04-13 15:00
Iran leadership change by April 30?	3	$149	78	78	+0	open	—	04-28 02:04
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	4	$149	80	80	+0	open	—	04-12 10:22
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$148	139	139	+0	open	—	03-24 03:16
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$148	75	75	+0	open	—	04-27 21:36
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	3	$148	76	76	+0	open	—	04-26 16:34
will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$147	75	75	+0	open	—	04-08 08:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 11:34:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0xb9a06d…
06-08 08:28:43	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x6ac68a…
05-19 05:24:52	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xec97c2…
05-18 22:25:20	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x15e45d…
05-18 22:25:20	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0x12f940…
05-13 10:59:43	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	23	93¢	$21	0xd9ceae…
05-12 12:17:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	6¢	$2	0x853989…
05-12 12:17:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	140	6¢	$8	0x31558d…
05-12 09:22:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	162	5¢	$8	0xd39039…
05-12 09:22:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0x6c34c9…
05-12 03:05:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	81	97¢	$79	0x5831d8…
05-12 03:04:47	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	81	97¢	$79	0xcecdeb…
05-11 14:26:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x5f2170…
05-11 14:25:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	3¢	$2	0x7f27bb…
05-11 12:30:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	3¢	$3	0x52b4e7…
05-11 10:02:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	78	94¢	$73	0x06483d…
05-11 07:11:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	78	94¢	$73	0x426bb6…
05-09 16:10:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	3¢	$2	0x3c5ffd…
05-09 16:10:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	3¢	$3	0x1beeee…
05-09 14:35:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	4¢	$5	0x65d6e5…
05-09 10:29:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x7a6300…
05-09 10:29:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x1a8d54…
05-09 08:03:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	74	96¢	$71	0x1e9a90…
05-08 20:21:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	74	97¢	$72	0xe60803…
05-08 18:29:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	74	98¢	$72	0x8b2383…
05-08 13:04:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	3¢	$5	0xcb5d5a…
05-08 13:04:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x25b511…
05-08 10:17:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xa370ce…
05-08 10:17:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	2¢	$2	0xa121cf…
05-08 06:27:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	72	97¢	$70	0xc13b6f…
05-08 02:53:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x30826c…
05-07 21:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0x5b92dd…
05-07 20:44:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	148	3¢	$4	0xda024f…
05-07 19:38:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	193	4¢	$8	0x172ddd…
05-07 10:19:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	77	95¢	$73	0xc7451c…
05-07 04:21:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	61	97¢	$59	0xa8629e…
05-07 04:21:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x8ab523…
05-05 14:44:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	77	96¢	$74	0x178dfd…
05-05 11:44:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	77	97¢	$74	0x2e28cd…
05-03 06:36:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xdc6b83…
05-03 06:36:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0xd9e8fd…
05-03 06:36:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xb2b5ff…
05-03 02:23:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	79	96¢	$76	0xdfa0ca…
05-01 06:43:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	121	6¢	$7	0x2370e7…
05-01 05:37:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	6¢	$4	0xde5cf2…
05-01 05:37:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	6¢	$3	0x8414cb…
04-30 18:35:04	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0xa55d06…
04-30 15:13:22	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0xd227ec…
04-30 09:08:18	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	103	2¢	$2	0x18dd55…
04-30 07:47:30	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0xb0d146…
04-30 07:47:28	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x654113…
04-29 11:36:54	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	159	1¢	$2	0x6eb744…
04-29 10:08:06	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x4f951f…
04-29 10:08:06	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x4e1c92…
04-29 10:08:06	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x3755e3…
04-28 02:06:26	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x99db9e…
04-28 02:04:24	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x31f985…
04-27 21:36:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0xc2bc37…
04-27 18:47:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0xebab99…
04-27 17:04:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x77115f…
04-27 14:21:42	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x6a3f61…
04-27 10:46:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	75	97¢	$72	0x3c76c8…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xcec257…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	54	2¢	$1	0xa78ef2…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x932d20…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x31fa44…
04-27 03:15:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0x37f5c7…
04-27 02:11:36	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$81	0xe4478c…
04-26 23:40:50	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$82	0x63df51…
04-26 16:34:50	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0xf0b900…
04-26 16:34:50	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xca33fc…
04-26 12:01:22	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	76	97¢	$74	0x8c3807…
04-26 11:13:24	Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0x6b66b2…
04-26 08:30:30	Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0xbd2090…
04-25 23:50:12	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	77	95¢	$73	0xa79097…
04-25 20:56:32	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0xffa6a7…
04-25 19:01:16	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x7346bb…
04-25 16:14:26	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xdae194…
04-25 09:11:26	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xfdfeee…
04-25 09:11:26	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0x840db2…
04-25 05:31:22	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb0e877…
04-25 05:31:22	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0x67c7f2…
04-25 05:28:52	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0x02bfc7…
04-25 04:00:08	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0xa944a3…
04-24 14:06:36	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x95985d…
04-24 11:47:50	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0x54e989…
04-23 10:32:22	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	172	4¢	$7	0x475f2b…
04-23 08:35:32	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0xc6af50…
04-23 06:02:00	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$1	0xf84e5a…
04-23 06:02:00	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	2¢	$2	0x5e7fc2…
04-23 06:02:00	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	2¢	$1	0x4a161d…
04-23 03:40:38	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	314	2¢	$5	0xa00600…
04-22 21:21:30	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x890efd…
04-22 21:21:30	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	72	95¢	$69	0x6a8488…
04-22 17:16:04	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0xdab46b…
04-22 13:43:20	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xfe783d…
04-22 13:43:20	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x221ca8…
04-22 09:49:54	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x902288…
04-21 15:15:40	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	131	3¢	$4	0xae7709…
04-21 11:28:34	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x22239e…