Unwritten-Capitulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$139

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

15.1%

Resolved

Trades

207

lifetime

Volume

$29.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$142

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-16

last 11-12 11:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 41% +$144

Politics

31% 20% -$10

Other

0% 100% +$4

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	4	$6.2K	3,106	3,106	+0	No	-$3	05-19 22:33
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$3.2K	1,583	1,583	+0	No	-$2	05-20 04:42
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	4	$3.1K	1,539	1,539	+0	No	-$1	05-20 03:48
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$3.0K	1,525	1,525	+0	No	-$2	05-20 02:09
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	2	$3.0K	1,522	1,522	+0	No	-$2	05-20 00:25
Will Solana reach $160 in May?	2	$3.0K	1,512	1,512	+0	No	-$5	05-20 01:14
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	2	$3.0K	1,503	1,503	+0	No	+$0	05-19 23:29
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$3.0K	1,502	1,502	+0	No	-$2	05-20 04:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	17	$210	150	150	+0	Up	+$90	05-18 11:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET	2	$201	101	101	+0	Up	+$1	05-18 12:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	2	$119	80	80	+0	Up	+$39	05-20 02:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	2	$119	90	90	+0	Up	+$47	05-18 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	8	$108	90	90	+0	Up	+$36	05-18 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	4	$92	81	81	+0	Down	+$60	11-05 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	3	$58	40	40	+0	Up	+$22	05-20 03:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	5	$48	65	40	+25	Down	-$9	05-20 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$45	40	40	+0	Up	+$25	05-18 11:41
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-15 07:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$30	20	20	+0	Up	+$10	05-20 03:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	2	$30	20	20	+0	Down	+$10	05-19 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	2	$30	20	20	+0	Up	+$10	11-05 04:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	4	$30	20	20	+0	Up	+$10	05-18 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	5	$29	20	20	+0	Up	+$11	05-20 04:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	1	$28	70	0	+70	Down	-$28	05-18 10:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	2	$28	20	20	+0	Up	+$12	05-18 11:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	4	$28	20	20	+0	Up	+$12	05-18 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$28	20	20	+0	Up	+$12	05-20 01:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8PM ET	5	$22	20	20	+0	Down	+$2	05-20 00:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	2	$20	50	0	+50	Down	-$20	05-20 04:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5AM ET	8	$20	50	0	+50	Down	-$20	05-18 09:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 11:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x5b4b02…
11-12 10:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x654b19…
11-12 10:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x502be4…
11-12 09:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xae5b64…
11-12 07:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0a7d1c…
11-12 07:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb95228…
11-12 06:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xe0fa62…
11-12 06:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x27f840…
11-12 06:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x98260a…
11-12 05:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1cdf48…
11-12 04:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xabbea0…
11-12 04:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xcaffa3…
11-12 03:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5c74fe…
11-12 02:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2a75d8…
11-12 02:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x7431bc…
11-12 02:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x7e740f…
11-12 02:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x6e2623…
11-12 02:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0xeca428…
11-12 00:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x16cbfd…
11-12 00:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3c29f3…
11-12 00:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf8c0d9…
11-11 23:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf54df6…
11-11 23:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x006aca…
11-11 21:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe9521a…
11-11 20:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xee6608…
11-11 19:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x00004c…
11-11 18:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x48818d…
11-11 17:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb71e54…
11-11 16:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xb7e52e…
11-11 16:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xe74444…
11-05 12:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x075850…
11-05 04:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	56	94¢	$53	0xf662f2…
11-05 04:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xbd61d5…
11-05 04:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc170f1…
11-05 04:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9d4196…
11-05 04:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x51e7b1…
11-05 04:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	81	20¢	$16	0xaf1595…
10-15 07:19:55	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x3063b4…
10-15 07:19:49	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9843a4…
08-27 14:11:15	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x93b2b2…
08-26 10:03:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcbc72e…
07-30 20:38:48	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3d2c25…
07-30 20:38:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb38274…
06-14 11:07:06	Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x385568…
06-14 11:06:58	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xf138a7…
05-20 05:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0xb8abbc…
05-20 05:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xc6c81d…
05-20 05:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xccec2a…
05-20 05:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x785b76…
05-20 05:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x4fe6fb…
05-20 04:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9b6537…
05-20 04:58:30	Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,502	100¢	$1,498	0xa33a42…
05-20 04:57:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xc6150b…
05-20 04:49:41	Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,502	100¢	$1,500	0xc021c7…
05-20 04:42:43	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	1,583	100¢	$1,579	0x7cb048…
05-20 04:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	3	45¢	$2	0x1632ff…
05-20 04:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xb5c9fe…
05-20 04:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xcb3dab…
05-20 04:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xfd5c74…
05-20 04:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0x5ff927…
05-20 04:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4a359d…
05-20 04:24:06	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,583	100¢	$1,581	0xa83a5d…
05-20 04:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xf32f6a…
05-20 03:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0xbf79db…
05-20 03:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb943ab…
05-20 03:48:23	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,244	99¢	$1,233	0xc4493e…
05-20 03:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x7d43d7…
05-20 03:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xcee0c7…
05-20 03:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x50d9d5…
05-20 03:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe5b252…
05-20 03:23:26	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	278	99¢	$276	0xb39e7e…
05-20 03:23:02	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x43b730…
05-20 03:15:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xee1dff…
05-20 03:05:55	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,539	99¢	$1,527	0x406b67…
05-20 03:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x3fe9e5…
05-20 03:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4c229d…
05-20 02:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xec16e1…
05-20 02:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x025af5…
05-20 02:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0xd9ea67…
05-20 02:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0xc5025c…
05-20 02:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x9f70bd…
05-20 02:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x65c502…
05-20 02:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xdc16a2…
05-20 02:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x8b0452…
05-20 02:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x4aa42a…
05-20 02:09:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x3cfcab…
05-20 02:09:23	Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,525	100¢	$1,521	0xa304a2…
05-20 02:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x458e7c…
05-20 02:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	35	46¢	$16	0x2b8909…
05-20 02:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xd99104…
05-20 02:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xa02a93…
05-20 02:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x97c5c2…
05-20 01:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x69a351…
05-20 01:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x0e5df0…
05-20 01:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x4c4214…
05-20 01:48:39	Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,525	100¢	$1,523	0x14793a…
05-20 01:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x926ce2…
05-20 01:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc92017…
05-20 01:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x60066e…
05-20 01:29:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x29b2a4…