Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.45K

Unrealized P&L

+$696

Hit rate

43.9%

Resolved

Trades

180

lifetime

Volume

$3.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$955

8 positions

First seen

2026-09-11

last 10-30 18:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

67% 26% +$1,824

Politics

20% 50% +$337

Tech

5% 25% +$516

Crypto

5% 17% -$149

Pop-Culture

3% 50% -$80

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+392	$43	98¢	$386	+$343	10-26 18:02
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+872	$88	44¢	$380	+$292	10-29 21:13
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	+183	$27	78¢	$143	+$115	10-05 14:37
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	+260	$50	11¢	$28	-$22	10-06 14:09
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	+16	$3	50¢	$8	+$5	10-27 13:26
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+354	$42	2¢	$7	-$35	10-22 09:21
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+6	$2	54¢	$3	+$2	10-03 13:00
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	No	+19	$4	2¢	$0	-$4	10-06 16:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	2	$636	739	739	+0	Yes	+$547	10-16 01:22
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	2	$173	128	128	+0	Yes	+$73	10-09 13:20
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?	1	$100	400	0	+400	Yes	-$100	10-14 12:30
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	1	$100	400	0	+400	Yes	-$100	10-16 01:16
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	1	$100	500	0	+500	open	—	10-25 23:54
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	11	$100	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	-$100	10-29 12:30
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	1	$100	357	0	+357	No	-$100	10-13 15:56
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of October 31?	1	$100	833	0	+833	Yes	-$100	10-20 03:27
Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	1	$100	714	0	+714	No	+$614	10-26 18:02
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	1	$100	970	0	+970	Yes	-$100	10-28 01:00
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	2	$100	555	0	+555	No	-$100	10-14 12:30
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	1	$100	555	0	+555	Yes	-$100	10-14 12:30
Will "Wuthering Heights" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	1	$100	555	0	+555	open	—	10-18 16:03
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	1	$100	320	0	+320	Yes	+$220	10-16 14:33
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	1	$100	254	0	+254	Yes	+$154	10-19 15:58
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	1	$100	434	0	+434	Yes	-$100	10-14 12:30
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	1	$88	872	0	+872	open	—	10-29 21:13
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	2	$76	629	0	+629	No	-$76	10-22 23:29
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	2	$72	238	50	+188	Yes	-$27	10-08 00:05
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	2	$62	269	82	+186	Yes	+$178	10-08 00:05
Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	1	$53	760	0	+760	No	-$53	10-28 22:17
Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$52	5,207	0	+5,207	No	-$52	10-27 20:05
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on October 8?	1	$50	714	0	+714	Yes	-$50	10-08 16:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 6AM ET	29	$50	833	0	+833	Down	-$50	09-12 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	1	$50	333	0	+333	Down	-$50	09-12 11:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	33	$50	333	0	+333	Up	-$50	09-12 10:58
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	1	$50	312	0	+312	Yes	-$50	10-06 16:42
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	1	$50	260	0	+260	open	—	10-06 14:09
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	1	$50	217	0	+217	open	—	10-08 06:21
Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	1	$50	131	0	+131	No	+$81	10-09 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 18:44:42	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	83	17¢	$14	0x67f6cc…
10-29 23:50:16	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?	No	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x3de517…
10-29 23:50:15	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?	No	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x212f49…
10-29 21:13:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	872	10¢	$88	0xdf44d8…
10-29 17:55:47	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	47	15¢	$7	0x525edf…
10-29 12:30:14	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	7,266	1¢	$73	0xf7ed5a…
10-29 12:30:11	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf54514…
10-29 12:30:10	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xfbf6b5…
10-29 12:30:10	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0xdf225b…
10-29 12:30:10	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5940cd…
10-29 12:30:08	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xfc5e1e…
10-29 12:30:08	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	1,562	1¢	$16	0x6f26f6…
10-29 12:30:08	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x57e6a8…
10-29 12:30:08	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x44fd0f…
10-29 12:30:08	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x23bfc9…
10-29 12:30:07	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	606	1¢	$6	0x177dda…
10-29 12:01:29	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	No	BUY	178	1¢	$2	0x080dd4…
10-29 12:01:28	Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1,010	1¢	$10	0xd482c6…
10-29 12:01:28	Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	215	1¢	$2	0xa079c8…
10-29 11:54:47	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	114	15¢	$17	0xe9e079…
10-28 22:17:28	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	760	7¢	$53	0x324e55…
10-28 17:06:29	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	7¢	$3	0x59e2d8…
10-28 16:38:25	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	379	1¢	$3	0x70ae02…
10-28 07:16:35	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x85a75e…
10-28 02:27:15	Will Otzma Yehudit win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	152	2¢	$3	0xa45316…
10-28 01:00:08	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	970	10¢	$100	0x7bd25d…
10-27 22:33:09	Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xc151aa…
10-27 20:05:50	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x566882…
10-27 20:05:50	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x4a89ff…
10-27 20:05:50	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	303	1¢	$3	0x288e30…
10-27 20:05:12	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1,010	1¢	$10	0xda968b…
10-27 20:05:12	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2,867	1¢	$29	0x0dc278…
10-27 20:05:03	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1,010	1¢	$10	0xf6e74a…
10-27 20:05:03	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x399ef0…
10-27 13:26:27	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0xb736ea…
10-26 20:49:21	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	No	BUY	217	12¢	$26	0x713988…
10-26 18:02:26	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x0e61f6…
10-26 18:02:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	392	11¢	$43	0x640324…
10-26 17:51:35	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	140	16¢	$22	0x75f080…
10-26 15:26:30	Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	522	7¢	$34	0x6f31d3…
10-26 00:02:29	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	261	4¢	$11	0x82c0a8…
10-25 23:54:48	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xbff84d…
10-25 15:10:48	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xcdc0d0…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0xdd53aa…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	201	12¢	$24	0x933cdc…
10-22 23:29:18	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	428	12¢	$51	0xb25689…
10-22 22:39:38	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	Yes	SELL	24	44¢	$11	0x151ae5…
10-22 17:07:45	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0x35515b…
10-22 09:21:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	354	12¢	$42	0x28e35e…
10-20 21:48:42	Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	147	1¢	$1	0x5cb0b3…
10-20 20:01:24	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 34% to 36%?	No	BUY	460	5¢	$23	0xf4b44e…
10-20 10:49:15	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	303	1¢	$3	0xd88e2b…
10-20 10:49:15	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0x5ea00e…
10-20 10:49:15	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0x3a499c…
10-20 10:49:15	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	293	1¢	$3	0x1a87b3…
10-20 10:48:56	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	39	1¢	$0	0xc6f6f5…
10-20 05:12:51	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	No	BUY	383	5¢	$19	0x946f6f…
10-20 03:27:38	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of October 31?	No	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x323704…
10-19 16:52:08	Paris curfew by October 19?	No	BUY	1,206	4¢	$49	0x45949f…
10-19 15:58:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	254	39¢	$100	0x6c2bee…
10-19 13:13:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 19?	No	BUY	127	31¢	$40	0xe1200e…
10-18 16:03:23	Will "Wuthering Heights" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	555	18¢	$100	0x5b67d8…
10-17 19:19:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x99fe79…
10-17 19:19:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x89ed24…
10-17 19:16:20	Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	No	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0x808bc0…
10-16 19:00:05	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	4¢	$6	0x4ae2e5…
10-16 14:33:57	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	320	31¢	$100	0x3f42a4…
10-16 10:30:19	Will Truist (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	782	2¢	$16	0xd2aafb…
10-16 08:28:42	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x26e792…
10-16 01:22:30	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	SELL	739	80¢	$591	0x815bd9…
10-16 01:16:03	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x51a288…
10-16 01:13:18	China ballistic missile launch by December 31?	No	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0xbb9be0…
10-16 00:50:21	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	739	6¢	$44	0xbccbc3…
10-15 14:40:41	Will PCN win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	BUY	248	12¢	$30	0x0858f8…
10-14 12:30:17	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?	No	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x693e3f…
10-14 12:30:17	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	555	18¢	$100	0x248c32…
10-14 12:30:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	434	23¢	$100	0xebe621…
10-14 12:30:08	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	517	18¢	$93	0x9b3ba7…
10-14 12:30:08	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x94814b…
10-14 12:30:08	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	38	18¢	$7	0x8c90a3…
10-14 12:30:08	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	1,198	2¢	$24	0x78aed5…
10-14 12:30:08	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	255	2¢	$5	0x5d437e…
10-14 11:25:20	ms quarterly earnings gaap eps 10 14 2026 3pt17	Yes	BUY	499	1¢	$5	0x5301f6…
10-13 18:40:06	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x485a49…
10-13 15:56:40	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x4d099d…
10-13 10:31:13	Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	333	7¢	$24	0x979190…
10-13 08:26:53	Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x057b64…
10-12 09:48:55	Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	478	1¢	$5	0x4bd0c4…
10-12 09:48:37	Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	272	1¢	$3	0x05cb42…
10-10 23:14:42	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x48e78b…
10-09 17:57:08	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x23cc26…
10-09 16:08:33	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	131	38¢	$50	0xe0a906…
10-09 13:20:37	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	SELL	128	96¢	$123	0x368890…
10-08 16:17:41	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on October 8?	No	BUY	714	7¢	$50	0xe3a68f…
10-08 06:21:16	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x876f67…
10-08 00:05:52	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	Yes	SELL	82	33¢	$27	0x10f435…
10-08 00:05:29	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x99c4be…
10-07 16:25:46	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	BUY	29	38¢	$11	0xb4bb77…
10-07 15:27:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?	No	BUY	847	1¢	$8	0x7436e1…
10-07 14:20:16	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x2d4540…