Sparse-Bestseller — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

Trades

169

lifetime

Volume

$2.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-10 01:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

74% 75% +$1

Other

26% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran closes its airspace by june 15	9	$173	94	94	+0	open	—	06-07 12:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	10	$171	149	149	+0	open	—	05-13 21:04
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	6	$170	89	89	+0	open	—	05-30 20:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	11	$146	150	122	+28	open	—	06-03 12:59
Iran leadership change by May 31?	4	$108	56	56	+0	open	—	05-25 08:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$83	94	71	+23	open	—	05-27 11:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	3	$65	29	39	-10	open	—	06-02 18:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	5	$62	89	89	+0	open	—	05-20 20:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	6	$62	84	84	+0	No	+$1	05-01 13:42
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	5	$62	72	72	+0	open	—	05-26 23:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$61	32	32	+0	open	—	05-29 03:39
israel closes its airspace by june 9	10	$61	91	91	+0	open	—	06-10 01:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$61	115	115	+0	open	—	05-06 14:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	5	$60	59	59	+0	No	+$0	05-10 09:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-08 16:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	10	$58	136	136	+0	open	—	05-14 15:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$58	30	30	+0	open	—	05-08 10:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	6	$57	77	77	+0	No	$-0	05-07 21:58
israel closes its airspace by june 8	4	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	06-08 17:28
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	2	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	06-05 23:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	2	$55	29	29	+0	open	—	06-09 09:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	05-27 21:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	3	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	06-01 07:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	3	$54	28	28	+0	open	—	05-18 03:40
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	6	$54	80	80	+0	open	—	05-03 05:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$54	28	28	+0	open	—	05-21 06:21
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	3	$53	28	28	+0	open	—	04-28 01:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$53	27	27	+0	open	—	05-14 20:47
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$52	28	28	+0	open	—	04-21 20:47
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	04-26 00:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 01:51:22	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x26badc…
06-10 01:31:48	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xd52123…
06-10 01:31:48	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x3e340f…
06-09 22:26:36	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0xde3088…
06-09 09:52:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0xedd275…
06-09 07:05:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0x10f345…
06-09 01:06:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0x6a8c26…
06-09 01:06:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	47	2¢	$1	0x353d94…
06-09 01:06:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x322107…
06-08 23:28:09	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0xdee994…
06-08 23:28:09	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0xddeea2…
06-08 23:28:09	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0xcc8693…
06-08 23:28:09	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x732d52…
06-08 17:28:42	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x2c9d83…
06-08 14:34:57	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xf8988c…
06-08 14:34:57	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x68904b…
06-08 14:34:57	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x22188e…
06-07 12:21:36	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xfe2f0f…
06-07 10:05:48	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xd650bf…
06-07 10:05:48	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x325f80…
06-07 09:02:24	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	21	93¢	$19	0xe3b9bd…
06-07 09:02:22	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0xa839bf…
06-07 07:21:37	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x647df5…
06-05 23:32:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x3bed58…
06-05 22:29:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x84fbaf…
06-05 06:39:01	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xd344e3…
06-05 06:38:22	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	18	91¢	$16	0x2fd86d…
06-05 06:37:16	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0x2854f6…
06-03 12:59:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$2	0xf136b1…
06-03 09:34:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	2¢	$1	0xd37dd4…
06-03 09:34:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x888338…
06-03 09:34:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x885736…
06-03 07:07:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0xc0dab7…
06-03 07:06:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x111689…
06-03 04:36:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x6be890…
06-02 18:20:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x6c91e7…
06-02 05:01:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x552793…
06-02 02:06:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x37704a…
06-01 22:10:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0xd157e0…
06-01 18:35:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xa66bda…
06-01 14:59:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd5eadb…
06-01 14:59:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x32fdf9…
06-01 07:07:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xe21c9a…
06-01 07:07:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x2b9c39…
06-01 06:59:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xd22058…
05-31 04:58:40	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x7a316d…
05-31 04:58:40	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x479bf5…
05-31 04:58:40	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0x387ccf…
05-30 20:01:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x80d7d6…
05-30 17:50:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x38a444…
05-29 20:46:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xbe33e0…
05-29 17:05:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x51d54a…
05-29 03:39:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	32	95¢	$30	0xb9eea3…
05-29 02:23:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x23c85d…
05-28 02:44:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0xdd7e77…
05-27 23:49:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x9682ff…
05-27 21:54:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0x7f6be3…
05-27 17:03:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x6b0067…
05-27 11:03:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0xa02ae2…
05-27 09:13:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x68fd30…
05-27 03:29:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x5e0abb…
05-26 23:27:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0xefd28f…
05-26 22:23:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$1	0xdf641b…
05-26 22:23:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x06b880…
05-26 06:46:53	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$30	0x958968…
05-26 04:50:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x2d0698…
05-25 08:04:33	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0xe3347d…
05-25 03:55:22	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x35b3ee…
05-21 15:56:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0x4c49e6…
05-21 15:34:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x50300b…
05-21 15:34:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x5ea6ab…
05-21 10:33:38	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x0c5a4f…
05-21 09:11:35	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x2c65ab…
05-21 06:21:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xe49f83…
05-21 06:21:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0x2a923b…
05-21 02:29:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xd3505e…
05-21 02:29:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xb0db70…
05-20 20:45:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0xa01b4d…
05-20 19:31:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xaeef7c…
05-20 19:31:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x820cbc…
05-20 17:35:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0x13adae…
05-20 17:19:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x7abf15…
05-18 03:40:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x0e6dc7…
05-18 03:40:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x99c0dd…
05-18 00:48:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x56b9ca…
05-14 20:47:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x1b2182…
05-14 19:15:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xe3bbb1…
05-14 15:56:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	46	3¢	$1	0x5f4e24…
05-14 15:56:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x19d5e9…
05-14 14:51:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0xf26f73…
05-14 14:51:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xef5f6c…
05-13 21:04:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x2d7176…
05-13 21:03:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x316e0d…
05-13 20:01:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	62	4¢	$3	0x2aa0cb…
05-13 17:02:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xba6fcd…
05-13 17:02:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x1335d3…
05-13 10:56:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x0be076…
05-13 09:45:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x3f8792…
05-13 05:49:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	55	3¢	$1	0xf9cfb2…
05-13 04:21:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$0	0x89c426…