Muted-Fleck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.56K

Unrealized P&L

+$30

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

565

Trades

3,088

lifetime

Volume

$226.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

$132

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-11 17:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 223 days

Categories

Other

95% 42% +$5,991

Politics

4% 27% -$639

Crypto

1% 48% +$103

Tech

0% 67% +$165

Sports

0% 0% -$60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes		+203	$65	38¢	$77	+$12	11-11 17:46
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes		+242	$37	23¢	$55	+$18	11-11 17:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	22	$5.9K	4,606	4,606	+0	Yes	+$900	07-21 15:29
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	26	$5.5K	7,606	7,606	+0	No	-$944	01-09 16:49
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	12	$3.8K	3,063	3,063	+0	No	+$1,330	07-17 15:45
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	19	$3.8K	2,408	2,408	+0	Yes	+$753	07-13 10:27
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	8	$3.6K	2,812	2,812	+0	No	+$564	07-07 10:07
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	4	$3.3K	6,077	6,077	+0	No	-$721	02-09 16:40
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	4	$3.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$734	05-11 12:11
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	49	$3.1K	2,622	2,622	+0	Yes	+$1,139	07-06 00:33
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	18	$3.0K	2,127	2,127	+0	Yes	+$599	05-05 09:32
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	4	$2.9K	1,519	1,519	+0	Yes	+$124	05-01 15:15
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	5	$2.8K	2,053	2,053	+0	Yes	+$1,061	07-20 14:02
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	5	$2.8K	5,317	5,317	+0	Yes	+$206	07-23 22:53
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	4	$2.7K	3,349	3,349	+0	Yes	+$549	07-17 16:08
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	22	$2.7K	1,836	1,836	+0	Yes	+$477	05-12 12:10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	20	$2.6K	2,056	2,056	+0	Yes	+$987	07-14 14:14
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	2	$2.5K	6,513	6,513	+0	No	-$2,484	07-22 14:12
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	8	$2.5K	3,303	1,454	+1,850	No	-$255	07-24 08:04
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 65 89	11	$2.3K	1,944	1,944	+0	No	+$735	03-07 06:10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	7	$2.3K	5,113	2,613	+2,500	No	-$178	07-21 15:49
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	11	$2.2K	4,044	4,044	+0	Yes	+$136	01-12 21:15
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	13	$2.2K	2,971	2,971	+0	No	+$1,562	02-06 15:40
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	10	$2.0K	2,068	2,068	+0	Yes	+$835	05-09 07:56
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	26	$2.0K	1,700	1,700	+0	No	-$300	10-21 15:12
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	19	$1.9K	4,450	4,450	+0	No	-$1,500	07-16 08:40
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	2	$1.9K	3,839	0	+3,839	No	-$1,890	07-21 22:34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	3	$1.9K	1,565	1,565	+0	Yes	+$668	05-13 01:04
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,623	1,623	+0	No	+$354	07-14 23:47
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 90 114	10	$1.8K	1,889	1,889	+0	Yes	+$111	03-18 14:04
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 40 64	19	$1.8K	1,443	1,437	+6	No	+$78	04-15 05:53
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 520 539	24	$1.8K	3,281	3,281	+0	Yes	+$21	01-06 16:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 17:46:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	203	32¢	$65	0xf77c22…
11-11 17:45:52	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	242	15¢	$37	0x7f16d9…
11-11 14:35:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	78¢	$168	0xd456bb…
11-10 20:21:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	19¢	$20	0x6c889e…
11-10 20:21:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	62¢	$45	0xc9e3cf…
11-10 20:20:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	63¢	$44	0x155328…
11-10 20:09:25	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xe6ab8b…
11-10 17:19:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	18¢	$6	0x72cf6f…
11-10 15:42:49	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x54f8ea…
11-10 14:28:36	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x568201…
11-10 14:27:31	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	6¢	$5	0x68f468…
11-10 14:27:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	35¢	$31	0xcdfb5e…
11-10 14:07:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x129154…
11-10 13:28:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xa742b7…
11-10 13:27:55	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x900b6f…
11-10 12:14:36	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	203	16¢	$32	0x7e2591…
11-10 12:10:16	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	8¢	$5	0x9933fe…
11-10 06:51:07	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	20¢	$12	0x65e5c9…
11-10 06:49:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	15¢	$5	0x4d9626…
11-10 06:47:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	16¢	$7	0x8a54e8…
11-10 00:34:43	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	22¢	$22	0x201a20…
11-10 00:34:30	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	23¢	$24	0x5d3e5b…
11-09 22:49:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	17¢	$25	0xb388ce…
11-09 22:49:04	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x3b2697…
11-09 22:48:12	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x37b674…
11-09 22:48:00	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	136	4¢	$6	0x111ee6…
11-09 15:53:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x168a8a…
11-09 14:27:52	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	17¢	$35	0x5f3c88…
11-09 14:27:34	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	7¢	$9	0x4e2a12…
11-09 14:27:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	41¢	$48	0x1e74ae…
11-09 10:47:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	33¢	$39	0x302e93…
11-09 10:46:15	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	355	0¢	$0	0xa31e8d…
11-09 10:46:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	5¢	$11	0xdf57a1…
11-08 19:54:22	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xb2fd62…
11-08 19:54:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xcb150f…
11-08 19:54:03	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x9435aa…
11-08 19:53:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	40¢	$36	0x6c7aec…
11-08 19:53:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	355	3¢	$10	0x05f512…
11-08 19:52:48	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xb1a2f1…
11-08 17:13:58	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	16¢	$17	0x7ca641…
11-08 17:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x9b6f6b…
11-08 17:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x01a4d4…
11-08 17:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf7a6fa…
11-08 17:07:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xbbf195…
11-08 17:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x3e2d86…
11-08 17:04:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x2a06ae…
11-08 17:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe9a2c9…
11-08 17:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd91e81…
11-08 17:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x564900…
11-08 17:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0x39b6e0…
11-08 17:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x71ddf1…
11-08 16:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x1c3fd5…
11-08 16:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x590139…
11-08 16:58:48	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x66df93…
11-08 16:58:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	34¢	$25	0x337af6…
11-08 16:51:46	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x326150…
11-08 16:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	56	4¢	$2	0x2adb5e…
11-08 16:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x21187b…
11-08 16:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xa3ca13…
11-08 16:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	91	38¢	$35	0x9da9fa…
11-08 16:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	91	27¢	$25	0xb27453…
11-08 16:46:15	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	5¢	$6	0x935646…
11-08 16:45:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	360	13¢	$46	0x882f5c…
11-07 14:59:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	10¢	$7	0x382d01…
11-07 14:59:13	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	6¢	$8	0x2cff6d…
11-07 09:54:48	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	6¢	$9	0xa77e21…
11-07 09:54:34	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	12¢	$14	0xfc1139…
11-07 09:54:24	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	360	17¢	$60	0x25e3ac…
11-07 09:53:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	540	17¢	$90	0x664392…
11-06 09:58:03	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	314	11¢	$33	0xa8edfa…
11-06 09:57:51	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	2¢	$5	0xd86ff6…
11-06 09:57:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	33¢	$41	0x231ed5…
11-06 09:40:49	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	11¢	$8	0x58ef8b…
11-06 09:40:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	34¢	$8	0x568b87…
11-06 09:24:36	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	8¢	$4	0xa36853…
11-06 09:24:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	2¢	$2	0xfa4abb…
11-06 09:24:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0x49f585…
11-06 08:28:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	24¢	$41	0x54fff4…
11-06 08:28:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	6¢	$6	0x33663c…
11-06 08:27:18	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	264	19¢	$51	0x972ec5…
11-05 12:15:03	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	43¢	$28	0x33746b…
11-05 12:14:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	314	10¢	$31	0xcde517…
11-05 12:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x0ca99a…
11-05 12:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	61	23¢	$14	0x9d578b…
11-05 12:01:27	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	43¢	$85	0xfb65c5…
11-05 12:01:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	10¢	$20	0xa40400…
11-05 11:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	47	54¢	$25	0xe522f7…
11-05 11:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	47	30¢	$14	0xe67b8f…
11-05 11:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	59	24¢	$14	0x7a3e43…
11-04 11:27:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	89¢	$40	0x30023d…
11-04 11:02:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0xc9750b…
11-04 10:58:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x592afb…
11-04 10:33:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	89¢	$142	0x12ba0a…
11-04 02:24:48	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	42¢	$101	0xc5e5d7…
11-04 02:24:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	272	40¢	$108	0x34ea03…
11-04 02:24:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	41¢	$19	0x85659e…
11-04 02:22:27	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?	Yes	SELL	35	46¢	$16	0x56c8ee…
11-04 02:17:36	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?	Yes	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0x073666…
11-04 02:04:16	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?	Yes	BUY	44	37¢	$16	0xe4de23…
11-04 02:00:43	Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	16¢	$15	0x023fb0…