Parched-Originality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

148

lifetime

Volume

$3.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$101

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 06-07 16:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

37% 100% +$18

Politics

35% — —

Other

27% 100% +$10

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-85	$-59	76¢	$-64	$-6	05-28 11:22
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	+72	$35	42¢	$30	$-5	06-01 18:52
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	+10	$5	59¢	$6	+$1	05-28 05:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	2	$337	180	180	+0	open	—	04-21 16:15
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$292	156	156	+0	open	—	05-17 13:53
btc updown 5m 1776788100	2	$185	205	0	+205	open	—	04-21 16:19
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$154	85	85	+0	open	—	04-13 09:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$140	71	71	+0	open	—	04-15 11:02
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	3	$139	121	121	+0	open	—	04-20 17:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	2	$134	68	68	+0	open	—	05-30 20:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$100	104	0	+104	open	—	05-15 14:09
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	2	$84	45	45	+0	open	—	06-07 16:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$80	83	0	+83	open	—	05-04 18:35
btc updown 5m 1776787800	2	$79	90	0	+90	open	—	04-21 16:14
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$76	81	0	+81	open	—	05-17 16:23
btc updown 5m 1776785400	1	$74	80	0	+80	open	—	04-21 15:34
btc updown 5m 1776783300	1	$64	77	0	+77	open	—	04-21 14:55
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	1	$61	66	0	+66	open	—	05-15 14:08
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	1	$59	0	85	-85	open	—	05-28 11:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	3	$58	32	32	+0	open	—	05-17 14:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$55	32	32	+0	open	—	05-17 14:17
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$54	59	0	+59	open	—	05-27 22:21
btc updown 5m 1776707400	1	$52	54	0	+54	open	—	04-20 17:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$51	27	27	+0	open	—	05-17 14:27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	1	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	05-28 11:25
btc updown 5m 1776707100	1	$49	52	0	+52	open	—	04-20 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	2	$48	66	0	+66	Up	+$18	05-13 16:41
Major US official out by May 31?	1	$40	48	0	+48	open	—	05-15 14:03
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	04-15 11:06
Kash Patel out by December 31?	1	$35	72	0	+72	open	—	06-01 18:52
btc updown 5m 1776708300	3	$35	44	0	+44	open	—	04-20 18:06
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	1	$30	40	0	+40	open	—	06-01 18:48
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	1	$30	34	0	+34	open	—	06-01 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 16:30:51	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0xa725c2…
06-01 19:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x7e81d9…
06-01 19:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xe9eb64…
06-01 19:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x05531d…
06-01 19:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x794538…
06-01 19:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x1d973a…
06-01 19:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x1915f9…
06-01 19:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x172f7a…
06-01 19:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x1fbece…
06-01 19:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0cb896…
06-01 19:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$9	0x2ff83d…
06-01 19:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x7ad17b…
06-01 19:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xcea748…
06-01 19:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x811199…
06-01 19:31:47	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x4c4e8e…
06-01 18:56:31	UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)	Belal Muhammad	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x075771…
06-01 18:52:40	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	72	49¢	$35	0xa60024…
06-01 18:48:12	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xa8873c…
06-01 18:44:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x4278cf…
05-31 21:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5ee281…
05-31 21:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x895c02…
05-30 20:43:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x42e125…
05-30 20:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x79066f…
05-30 20:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x0b2eea…
05-30 20:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x161080…
05-30 20:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x26b6d9…
05-29 08:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3e972c…
05-29 08:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x7f4295…
05-29 08:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xd838e8…
05-28 15:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb1c4b7…
05-28 14:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xddc689…
05-28 14:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x93b327…
05-28 11:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x31e933…
05-28 11:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x158bfe…
05-28 11:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x8062fc…
05-28 11:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x907747…
05-28 11:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xd0dbdc…
05-28 11:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfa1a74…
05-28 11:25:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x84c7dd…
05-28 11:22:00	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	69¢	$59	0x723d1b…
05-28 05:31:17	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x74c335…
05-27 22:21:29	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0x5c6ce2…
05-27 22:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe72d39…
05-27 22:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x3c7da5…
05-27 22:14:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xe0b4a3…
05-17 16:40:36	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xd4c90e…
05-17 16:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x4de4bd…
05-17 16:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4b67e6…
05-17 16:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa19ef5…
05-17 16:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x563331…
05-17 16:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x4a78ca…
05-17 16:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xc7b812…
05-17 16:23:25	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x51fd8c…
05-17 16:18:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x333c45…
05-17 14:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x49b7e0…
05-17 14:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x9ca5d6…
05-17 14:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xad2403…
05-17 14:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0xaf242f…
05-17 14:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x075ec2…
05-17 14:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xab9cea…
05-17 14:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x8e1eaf…
05-17 14:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x525686…
05-17 13:53:57	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	156	90¢	$140	0x2dcf3d…
05-16 15:50:06	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	84	98¢	$83	0x7aad89…
05-15 14:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xe88fdc…
05-15 14:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x0a83e8…
05-15 14:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x3ccdfc…
05-15 14:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x7024a7…
05-15 14:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x471143…
05-15 14:46:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x6689a1…
05-15 14:38:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	27	84¢	$23	0x4787a7…
05-15 14:33:49	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	71	97¢	$69	0x1c57bc…
05-15 14:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x91a62c…
05-15 14:17:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xdbaf96…
05-15 14:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x047c8c…
05-15 14:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xe0cec1…
05-15 14:08:14	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	92¢	$61	0x094cec…
05-15 14:03:39	Major US official out by May 31?	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x9687b4…
05-15 14:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x581d72…
05-15 14:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd93e57…
05-13 16:47:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	68	96¢	$66	0x14ef9b…
05-13 16:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	46	76¢	$35	0x12a57a…
05-13 16:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x584d1b…
05-04 18:36:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	61¢	$16	0x101025…
05-04 18:36:04	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xd92260…
05-04 18:35:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	83	97¢	$80	0x0944bd…
04-27 11:02:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0x4395ac…
04-21 16:19:52	btc updown 5m 1776788100	Down	BUY	191	94¢	$180	0x9d2792…
04-21 16:19:00	btc updown 5m 1776788100	Up	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xb721ba…
04-21 16:15:28	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	180	98¢	$176	0xc3db9b…
04-21 16:14:20	btc updown 5m 1776787800	Down	BUY	80	96¢	$77	0x6b9563…
04-21 16:13:00	btc updown 5m 1776787800	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xf0f56d…
04-21 16:02:04	btc updown 5m 1776787200	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x33a399…
04-21 15:34:16	btc updown 5m 1776785400	Down	BUY	80	92¢	$74	0x0325b5…
04-21 15:25:24	btc updown 5m 1776785100	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x085eb6…
04-21 14:55:42	btc updown 5m 1776783300	Down	BUY	77	83¢	$64	0x4c50d8…
04-21 14:52:38	btc updown 5m 1776783000	Up	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x793ce0…
04-20 18:13:42	btc updown 5m 1776708600	Down	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xe03351…
04-20 18:06:34	btc updown 5m 1776708300	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xa386b2…
04-20 18:05:58	btc updown 5m 1776708300	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x975ac6…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	82	$137.4K	2,591	06-08 01:01
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	65	$22.7K	3,876	06-01 19:44
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	65	$20.6K	6,011	06-01 19:44
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	65	$20.3K	3,338	06-01 19:44
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	65	$19.0K	5,634	06-01 19:44
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	65	$14.2K	673	06-01 19:44
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	64	$39.8K	2,588	06-01 19:44
Colorless-Camp 0x0748…92a1	64	$16.1K	2,726	06-01 19:45