Known-Bonfire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$69

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.3%

Resolved

Trades

711

lifetime

Volume

$29.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 05-28 14:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 40% $-86

Other

46% 54% +$155

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 175 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 4?	11	$1.4K	993	993	+0	open	—	05-04 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	9	$1.2K	820	820	+0	open	—	05-28 05:29
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 5?	14	$985	900	900	+0	Down	+$32	05-05 20:17
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	16	$931	1,361	1,361	+0	open	—	05-28 14:14
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 13?	6	$920	625	625	+0	Up	+$291	05-13 15:32
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 18?	5	$904	812	812	-0	open	—	05-18 14:34
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 28?	10	$871	1,533	1,533	+0	open	—	05-28 02:56
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	27	$817	1,213	1,213	+0	open	—	04-29 18:05
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	6	$765	540	540	+0	open	—	05-04 13:40
bitcoin above 72k on march 24	5	$736	684	676	+8	open	—	03-24 11:36
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 20?	2	$725	1,098	1,098	+0	open	—	05-20 14:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	39	$724	499	499	+0	open	—	05-28 03:14
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 10am et	3	$665	632	623	+8	open	—	03-24 14:13
bitcoin up or down march 29 2026 11am et	2	$587	505	499	+7	open	—	03-29 15:27
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$557	381	381	+0	Up	+$198	05-06 18:58
bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 11am et	2	$535	377	365	+13	open	—	03-31 15:14
spx up or down on march 24 2026	4	$477	976	976	+0	open	—	03-24 17:26
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 21?	15	$463	466	466	+0	open	—	05-21 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10AM ET	2	$452	313	313	+0	open	—	04-28 14:33
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 2pm et	2	$423	287	282	+4	open	—	03-24 18:46
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 29?	10	$407	685	685	+0	open	—	04-29 14:13
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on march 23	3	$405	268	264	+4	open	—	03-23 15:27
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 30?	6	$394	783	783	+0	open	—	04-30 10:38
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 10am et	2	$370	246	242	+4	open	—	03-25 14:58
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26?	2	$346	627	627	+0	open	—	05-25 10:45
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 18 above $420?	4	$328	220	220	+0	open	—	05-22 19:00
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 23	2	$322	437	431	+6	open	—	03-23 12:18
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 7?	10	$321	237	236	+0	Up	+$122	05-07 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	25	$298	525	525	+0	open	—	05-28 04:35
bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 9am et	3	$296	332	321	+11	open	—	03-31 13:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 14:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	266	66¢	$175	0xb26127…
05-28 14:14:23	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	SELL	1,361	12¢	$169	0x195642…
05-28 06:55:59	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	61	56¢	$34	0x3195c2…
05-28 06:55:57	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xc5b57c…
05-28 06:55:55	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x6e72a5…
05-28 06:55:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x9792e5…
05-28 06:55:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x778fda…
05-28 06:55:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x3a3459…
05-28 06:55:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xf0015b…
05-28 06:55:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x6f9447…
05-28 06:55:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xcfca68…
05-28 06:55:41	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x801454…
05-28 06:55:41	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x748713…
05-28 06:55:39	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xc19ec0…
05-28 06:55:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x6ef962…
05-28 06:55:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	95	56¢	$53	0x6da051…
05-28 06:55:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x99e9d3…
05-28 06:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xe2667c…
05-28 06:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb0c731…
05-28 06:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x646d07…
05-28 06:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x199451…
05-28 06:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xaaf831…
05-28 06:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0x1023cc…
05-28 06:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x83fc85…
05-28 06:45:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x2c3b33…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xeb1656…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xe3d5b1…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$2	0x972712…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x92ec56…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x521b30…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4842b0…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x360ba8…
05-28 06:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x06a9a3…
05-28 06:27:25	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on May 28?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x58e3cd…
05-28 06:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0xe1a64a…
05-28 06:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xb53b36…
05-28 06:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0x4ab2e9…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0xfb587d…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcc9b48…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb6e30f…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x9dc607…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0x99867a…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x5c2697…
05-28 05:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	43¢	$7	0x1ad9ae…
05-28 05:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	32	43¢	$14	0x0ded3a…
05-28 05:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	820	99¢	$812	0xff92ba…
05-28 05:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	731	43¢	$315	0xc3c7d8…
05-28 05:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xb9c9aa…
05-28 05:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x6c161d…
05-28 05:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x8a8917…
05-28 05:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xaeecc4…
05-28 05:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xe8aa2a…
05-28 05:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x7b4dc3…
05-28 05:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x42f674…
05-28 04:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	525	16¢	$83	0x73f92b…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xf1e89a…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf0791f…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xcb625f…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xc2757f…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xc2146a…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0x620a5d…
05-28 04:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	35	41¢	$14	0x39253e…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xeea9a0…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0xe38695…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xe34434…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0xe03d27…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xb6c551…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xa33eb9…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa116dd…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x91635c…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0x560ce6…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x369c9d…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x33580c…
05-28 04:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x2d3612…
05-28 04:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xb00549…
05-28 04:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	186	41¢	$76	0xdc61e3…
05-28 04:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8587f9…
05-28 04:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x0ce426…
05-28 04:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x073471…
05-28 04:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	217	10¢	$22	0x872e06…
05-28 04:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xbfe292…
05-28 04:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	79	45¢	$35	0x572d27…
05-28 04:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0xac93f4…
05-28 04:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0x251a20…
05-28 03:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x52bc6b…
05-28 03:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0xf9af6e…
05-28 03:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xf03dd9…
05-28 03:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	57	45¢	$26	0xeb5627…
05-28 03:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc98c94…
05-28 03:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xc36bdc…
05-28 03:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9157cf…
05-28 03:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x448e50…
05-28 03:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	221	99¢	$219	0x7b95cf…
05-28 03:14:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xddcbdc…
05-28 03:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0xcca048…
05-28 03:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x43c620…
05-28 03:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc77e75…
05-28 03:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x605e32…
05-28 03:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x3388f5…
05-28 03:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x5db9af…