Sugary-Muffin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$227

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 06-12 13:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

78% — —

Sports

13% 20% $-15

Other

7% 100% +$2

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	4	$20	17	17	+0	open	—	05-16 10:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	3	$13	14	8	+6	open	—	05-18 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	1	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	05-21 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$11	16	0	+16	open	—	05-18 14:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-18 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	2	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$8	32	0	+32	open	—	05-16 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	2	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	05-18 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-16 11:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	05-16 10:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-16 12:00
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	1	$5	9	0	+9	Thunder	$-5	05-05 07:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	05-18 14:30
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)	1	$5	10	0	+10	Timberwolves	$-5	05-04 06:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	1	$5	21	0	+21	open	—	05-16 09:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-18 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 11:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	05-16 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 10:20
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-20 12:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-18 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	05-16 08:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	1	$3	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 09:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	05-16 09:21
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	1	$3	5	0	+5	76ers	$-3	05-06 19:31
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	05-03 19:13
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-04 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	05-16 09:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	05-16 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 13:26:22	btc updown 5m 1781270700	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x532225…
06-12 12:40:07	btc updown 5m 1781268000	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x1df731…
06-12 12:38:09	btc updown 5m 1781267700	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb175e7…
05-22 17:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x845709…
05-22 14:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x731452…
05-22 14:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7c483e…
05-21 11:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$1	0x19ca00…
05-21 07:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x5e19b5…
05-20 20:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe68664…
05-20 05:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1d22eb…
05-19 14:06:28	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5	Under	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x091838…
05-19 13:51:16	Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)	Avalanche	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9e3c10…
05-19 13:49:57	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)	Atlanta Braves	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd10359…
05-19 13:49:36	Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe25643…
05-19 13:47:00	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	Knicks	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0x481322…
05-18 17:55:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x7fce27…
05-18 17:51:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2c02c9…
05-18 17:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x29a346…
05-18 17:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x3650d7…
05-18 15:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x74099e…
05-18 15:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xc89e77…
05-18 15:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x55d735…
05-18 14:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe8525f…
05-18 14:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x74e95c…
05-18 14:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x56bddb…
05-18 14:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x62c526…
05-18 14:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xb4aea4…
05-18 14:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x769db9…
05-18 14:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3e39fe…
05-18 14:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x4a5b12…
05-18 14:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfa3890…
05-18 14:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x101bcf…
05-18 14:30:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x60dd84…
05-18 14:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe319cc…
05-18 14:20:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xad3096…
05-18 14:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd6ab7d…
05-16 12:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xae96c3…
05-16 11:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x97013b…
05-16 11:46:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xed0898…
05-16 10:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x81a28b…
05-16 10:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x073d93…
05-16 10:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x3f960c…
05-16 10:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	35¢	$3	0x60ad95…
05-16 10:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb50368…
05-16 10:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x37e32f…
05-16 10:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x79f610…
05-16 09:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x62432e…
05-16 09:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	32	24¢	$8	0x412bf5…
05-16 09:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x67cfdf…
05-16 09:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x594f8c…
05-16 09:21:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xc92bba…
05-16 09:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xe6e864…
05-16 09:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x244e71…
05-16 09:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3a752a…
05-16 09:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	33¢	$3	0xfc89b3…
05-16 08:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x6faaeb…
05-06 19:31:40	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	Knicks	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb6dd07…
05-05 07:25:12	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x3186df…
05-05 07:21:44	Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Lakers	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x84b923…
05-05 07:21:10	Spread: Pistons (-3.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xd325b8…
05-04 08:20:58	Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdc558e…
05-04 08:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd4c363…
05-04 08:04:40	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xc5f1a9…
05-04 06:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x7f5f21…
05-04 06:45:32	Spread: Spurs (-13.5)	Spurs	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc97163…
05-03 19:13:22	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0x575699…
05-03 19:13:02	Spread: Pistons (-8.5)	Pistons	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x6aaf6c…
05-02 19:53:00	Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	76ers	BUY	3	58¢	$1	0xecd46e…
04-30 07:52:18	Knicks vs. Hawks	Knicks	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe55442…
04-28 08:30:08	Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x7bc265…
04-28 08:30:00	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x4cc308…
04-28 08:29:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf97f15…
04-28 08:25:56	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xfe04d2…
04-28 08:25:48	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0xe68c7e…
04-23 06:57:36	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x346dc9…
04-23 06:57:14	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xecf4e7…
04-23 06:56:50	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd00b57…
04-23 06:54:48	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xfec7de…
04-20 12:02:24	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 20 2026	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x9df0f8…
04-20 12:02:04	Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x3a3783…
04-20 11:58:30	highest temperature in seoul on april 21 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbf7ef3…
04-20 11:56:02	wti up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x806d7d…
04-20 11:55:16	spx opens up or down on april 20 2026	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf14857…
04-20 11:54:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb72443…