Determined-Descent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$892

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.1%

Resolved

1,689

Trades

2,468

lifetime

Volume

$52.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-28 15:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 168 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 80% -$747

Other

8% 60% -$70

Politics

1% 33% -$75

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 22:15 UTC	4	$1.9K	947	947	+0	Down	+$4	02-01 22:29
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$680	400	400	+0	Yes	-$56	04-08 15:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 04:00 UTC	1	$669	715	0	+715	Up	-$669	02-03 04:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 12:30 UTC	1	$654	669	0	+669	Down	+$14	02-02 12:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 11:45 UTC	1	$648	654	0	+654	Down	+$7	02-02 11:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 11:15 UTC	1	$641	648	0	+648	Up	+$6	02-02 11:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 10:15 UTC	1	$601	623	0	+623	Down	+$23	02-02 10:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 10:00 UTC	1	$595	601	0	+601	Down	+$6	02-02 10:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:30 UTC	1	$534	596	0	+596	Up	+$62	02-02 09:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 09:00 UTC	1	$529	534	0	+534	Down	+$5	02-02 09:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:30 UTC	1	$524	529	0	+529	Up	+$5	02-02 08:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:15 UTC	1	$513	524	0	+524	Down	+$10	02-02 08:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 08:00 UTC	1	$512	513	0	+513	Up	+$2	02-02 08:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 07:45 UTC	1	$501	512	0	+512	Up	+$10	02-02 07:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 07:15 UTC	1	$496	501	0	+501	Down	+$5	02-02 07:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 23:45 UTC	1	$489	494	0	+494	Down	+$5	02-01 23:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 23:30 UTC	1	$485	489	0	+489	Up	+$5	02-01 23:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 23:15 UTC	1	$480	485	0	+485	Up	+$5	02-01 23:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 23:00 UTC	1	$478	480	0	+480	Down	+$2	02-01 23:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 22:45 UTC	1	$473	478	0	+478	Down	+$5	02-01 22:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 07:45 UTC	1	$453	458	0	+458	Down	+$5	02-03 07:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 07:30 UTC	1	$449	453	0	+453	Up	+$5	02-03 07:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 07:15 UTC	1	$444	449	0	+449	Down	+$4	02-03 07:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 06:45 UTC	1	$440	444	0	+444	Up	+$4	02-03 06:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 06:30 UTC	1	$431	440	0	+440	Down	+$9	02-03 06:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 10:45 UTC	1	$430	453	0	+453	Down	+$23	02-03 10:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 10:30 UTC	1	$422	430	0	+430	Down	+$9	02-03 10:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 06:00 UTC	1	$421	431	0	+431	Down	+$10	02-03 06:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 05:45 UTC	1	$416	421	0	+421	Down	+$5	02-03 05:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 10:15 UTC	1	$413	422	0	+422	Down	+$9	02-03 10:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x801f13…
10-28 13:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x594d5a…
10-26 11:59:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xc556ae…
10-26 11:59:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0xbc73da…
10-26 11:59:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x025660…
10-26 11:53:50	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x700daa…
10-26 07:43:50	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x38a395…
10-25 15:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 25?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x22a78a…
10-25 10:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 25?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x0c6cd3…
10-25 07:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x22d94c…
10-25 07:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3ce13c…
10-25 07:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9ecb55…
10-24 12:58:14	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 24?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x075483…
10-24 07:24:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 24?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xc38959…
10-24 06:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x3671a8…
10-23 15:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x21f8f1…
10-23 15:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf3895e…
10-23 15:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf88233…
10-23 14:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xaea41d…
10-23 14:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xb54513…
10-23 13:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x95bbcd…
10-23 13:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9a57e6…
10-23 13:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x813414…
10-23 13:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8a0cc2…
10-23 13:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x8ac931…
10-23 13:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe41d99…
10-23 12:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xeddd70…
10-23 12:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa81f70…
10-23 11:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb6561b…
10-23 11:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc3a4ab…
10-23 09:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x06dac8…
10-23 09:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x61c735…
10-23 06:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 22?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xfb5052…
10-22 10:59:35	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2b5a22…
10-22 09:29:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x148640…
10-22 08:09:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6f3011…
10-21 16:28:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xac5dc4…
10-21 12:34:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 22?	No	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x8adf85…
10-21 12:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x2266c8…
10-21 12:21:21	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3cc2b4…
10-21 11:23:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xb3a006…
10-21 11:10:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe616ac…
10-21 11:02:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x2c0867…
10-21 10:53:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 22?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3c7529…
10-21 10:53:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 22?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x323c44…
10-21 10:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x525bd4…
10-21 10:50:12	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x9e58a6…
10-21 10:35:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc1baf7…
10-21 08:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xab5f8a…
10-21 08:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xad35cd…
10-21 08:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xe0e1d0…
10-21 08:03:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x8eb3a7…
10-21 06:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x8614ae…
10-20 17:21:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x6985b4…
10-20 17:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x88f386…
10-20 16:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x1b8de9…
10-20 16:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x172975…
10-20 16:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xdc8bcc…
10-20 15:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	89¢	$7	0xad03a6…
10-20 15:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb4bbc1…
10-20 15:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x37104e…
10-20 15:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x9b1997…
10-20 14:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0xa9a5fd…
10-20 14:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x3f79c7…
10-20 13:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x2df918…
10-20 13:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x2cbd00…
10-20 12:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x20cea0…
10-20 12:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x9e4ca0…
10-20 11:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xb1ff54…
10-20 10:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x639f46…
10-20 10:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xf32995…
10-20 07:39:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xebce47…
10-20 07:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xbc75a4…
10-20 06:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x998c8a…
10-20 06:59:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x6bf589…
10-19 18:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x21d017…
10-19 18:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x417fb5…
10-19 15:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0xdf5033…
10-19 15:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xdeeb99…
10-19 07:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x8b05c3…
10-19 07:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x117fac…
10-19 07:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc34d50…
10-19 07:04:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd6415c…
10-18 18:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x088463…
10-18 18:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x60ad01…
10-18 15:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x0036ce…
10-18 15:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x995041…
10-18 08:18:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xa2829e…
10-18 07:49:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:45 UTC	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x2423a6…
10-18 07:48:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xd464de…
10-18 07:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xdb3ee9…
10-18 07:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa662de…
10-18 06:59:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 06:55 UTC	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x64b66e…
10-18 06:58:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x55bb2b…
10-17 20:59:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xc07aee…
10-17 20:58:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x3a94cc…
10-17 20:34:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x2d4633…
10-17 20:33:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xae0679…
10-17 19:49:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x218bb7…
10-17 19:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x225436…