Naive-Atmosphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.07K

Unrealized P&L

-$228

Hit rate

70.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,252

lifetime

Volume

$161.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$129

Open exposure

$444

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-07 02:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

70% 57% -$2,189

Other

30% 51% -$2,824

Crypto

0% 50% -$35

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$26

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-07).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No		-400	-$96	96¢	$-385	-$289	06-07 02:45
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		-3,500	-$120	2¢	$-60	+$61	05-24 22:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	14	$9.9K	10,446	0	+10,446	No	+$542	02-28 06:34
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	16	$9.6K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$68	02-28 06:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	22	$8.9K	13,020	13,020	+0	Yes	-$2,309	02-28 07:35
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	52	$8.6K	4,300	7,572	-3,272	No	+$1,314	01-30 09:58
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	6	$8.6K	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$316	01-15 22:26
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	34	$8.1K	8,252	3,150	+5,102	No	+$283	01-25 12:32
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	2	$7.7K	7,860	0	+7,860	No	+$127	02-26 12:47
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$180	01-25 05:59
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	72	$6.2K	6,500	2,578	+3,922	Yes	-$749	04-23 11:28
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	6	$5.5K	5,630	0	+5,630	No	+$123	02-09 13:35
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	37	$5.2K	6,028	1,514	+4,514	Yes	+$249	02-10 13:50
will the government shutdown last 6 days or more 888	29	$4.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$205	02-02 12:46
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$6	01-03 10:12
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	3	$3.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$52	02-01 13:40
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	1	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$248	01-15 22:28
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	2	$3.5K	3,585	0	+3,585	Yes	+$38	02-02 16:01
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	13	$3.5K	4,200	0	+4,200	No	+$216	01-13 22:08
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	6	$3.4K	3,000	750	+2,250	No	+$233	02-07 04:12
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	6	$3.2K	3,000	2,000	+1,000	Alcaraz	+$340	02-01 11:47
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	21	$2.8K	6,510	1,509	+5,001	No	-$1,764	02-03 11:35
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	4	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$35	01-16 17:25
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	3	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$80	01-12 23:02
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	3	$1.9K	1,971	0	+1,971	No	+$52	01-22 16:13
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$94	01-25 07:54
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	15	$1.7K	1,911	0	+1,911	Yes	+$169	03-03 17:29
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	6	$1.6K	787	1,287	-500	No	-$279	02-09 10:59
will trump sell 0 gold cards in 2025	2	$1.5K	1,483	0	+1,483	Yes	+$19	01-01 05:08
us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	2	$1.4K	1,437	0	+1,437	No	+$35	01-25 22:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$1.4K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	-$1,400	02-28 17:23
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	1	$1.4K	0	1,429	-1,429	Yes	-$36	01-15 14:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 02:45:15	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	400	24¢	$96	0xa3f0cd…
05-24 22:07:21	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3,500	3¢	$120	0x2fed83…
04-23 11:28:56	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	98¢	$3,908	0x6212a1…
04-12 15:43:33	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x1aee6a…
04-12 15:43:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x7d325d…
04-12 15:43:21	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xf44eee…
04-12 15:43:17	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x313c59…
04-12 15:43:13	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xe5a2e3…
04-12 15:43:09	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xa36ac1…
04-12 15:43:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xebfb31…
04-12 15:42:59	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x1a88ae…
04-12 15:42:57	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x6af0fd…
04-12 15:14:11	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xce4fb3…
04-12 15:14:07	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x35522b…
04-12 15:13:57	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x77b262…
04-12 15:13:53	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xdfbfc1…
04-12 15:13:49	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xf04aa3…
04-12 15:13:45	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xcfa1d0…
04-12 15:08:41	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x8fb1f8…
04-12 15:08:23	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x523bbd…
04-12 15:07:57	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x61d563…
04-12 15:07:21	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x063cd9…
04-12 12:12:13	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xa0cb05…
04-12 12:12:07	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x3947ad…
04-12 12:12:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xc2de10…
04-12 12:12:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x27b84e…
04-12 12:07:29	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x8ad036…
04-12 12:07:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x44d675…
04-12 11:37:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0xd8c8b5…
04-12 11:37:33	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x2fb9b9…
04-12 11:37:29	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x7dcbb5…
04-12 11:37:27	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x630462…
04-12 11:37:23	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x48f026…
04-12 11:37:19	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x7386ec…
04-12 11:34:41	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xc3a25b…
04-12 11:34:39	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x2f9cf8…
04-12 11:34:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xa1d59a…
04-12 11:34:31	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xcc76ae…
04-12 11:34:29	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xb7145c…
04-12 11:34:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x65558a…
04-12 11:34:23	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xbb8319…
04-12 11:34:19	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xd1aa20…
04-12 11:34:15	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x14c090…
04-12 11:34:13	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xdb8c11…
04-12 11:34:07	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xbdd10d…
04-12 11:34:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x974e0a…
04-11 22:52:21	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xfe5fe9…
04-11 22:49:13	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x68916a…
04-11 22:49:11	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x8d7121…
04-09 15:08:21	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	844	38¢	$321	0x9dd931…
04-07 21:24:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	32	40¢	$13	0x4a9f81…
04-07 21:22:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x53ed32…
04-07 21:22:21	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xc54358…
04-07 21:00:23	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x7a6e9a…
04-07 20:24:31	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0xedef86…
04-07 17:40:15	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x32f551…
04-07 17:23:17	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	463	40¢	$185	0x4ec7ed…
04-07 17:05:49	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0x60f52b…
04-07 12:06:31	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xa93271…
04-07 11:12:17	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x86c848…
04-07 11:01:13	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x1df081…
04-07 10:43:15	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	750	40¢	$300	0x636f9e…
03-16 00:43:49	will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	1,702	14¢	$238	0x93e346…
03-15 03:50:03	will japan make the 2026 world baseball classic final	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0xaf6dca…
03-15 03:47:33	will japan make the 2026 world baseball classic final	Yes	BUY	988	7¢	$69	0x1fc0ad…
03-08 07:56:09	wbc mex bra 2026 03 08	Mexico	BUY	31	52¢	$16	0xd1dcb7…
03-06 21:15:43	wbc aus sok 2026 03 09	South Korea	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0ae820…
03-06 18:05:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0xdb164f…
03-06 18:05:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcab7d9…
03-06 18:05:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0xab616a…
03-06 18:05:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x4a6c11…
03-06 16:02:33	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	280	51¢	$143	0xadeed1…
03-06 11:38:45	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	752	5¢	$38	0x56e251…
03-06 11:25:51	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xeba3a9…
03-06 06:57:39	wbc usa grb 2026 03 07	USA	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0x1e79b7…
03-06 06:00:37	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,038	51¢	$530	0x976f78…
03-06 03:16:07	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	128	5¢	$6	0x7ba20b…
03-05 18:27:19	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9143cb…
03-05 17:03:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xbc035a…
03-05 17:03:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0x799dff…
03-05 17:03:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	456	51¢	$233	0x022094…
03-05 02:02:27	wbc usa grb 2026 03 07	USA	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0xd68294…
03-04 23:17:49	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x5d927b…
03-04 21:16:09	wbc usa grb 2026 03 07	USA	BUY	75	92¢	$69	0x23d97b…
03-04 15:43:47	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xf5b500…
03-04 15:39:55	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x6fd3a6…
03-04 15:39:53	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xace7d2…
03-04 15:39:53	will korea win pool c at the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7f5a10…
03-04 12:33:21	wbc sok cht 2026 03 07	South Korea	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xf68dee…
03-04 09:35:57	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	130	21¢	$27	0x4070e2…
03-04 09:35:57	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	131	21¢	$27	0x1c5c9d…
03-04 09:35:57	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	153	21¢	$32	0x0988be…
03-04 09:16:35	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	35	21¢	$7	0x3fd7db…
03-04 09:07:07	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xc0b0f9…
03-04 09:06:11	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x665c3c…
03-04 09:05:21	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0xd81909…
03-04 08:52:33	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x83ede3…
03-04 08:48:55	wbc pur pan 2026 03 07	Puerto Rico	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x286b1d…
03-04 08:48:49	wbc ita bra 2026 03 07	Italy	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x14121e…
03-04 08:23:51	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x25a6ec…