Valid-Psychologist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.52K

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

119

Trades

1,360

lifetime

Volume

$1.75M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.28K

Open exposure

$41.0K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-26 20:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 95% +$5,350

Other

11% 88% +$4,177

Politics

8% 100% +$3,629

Sports

4% 100% +$146

Tech

4% 83% +$3,398

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+41,789	$38,450	98¢	$41.0K	+$2,524	08-05 08:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 76k on march 6	4	$55.5K	55,644	0	+55,644	No	+$167	03-06 09:44
bitcoin above 76k on march 4	20	$55.3K	55,418	0	+55,418	No	+$113	03-04 15:24
bitcoin above 72k on march 3	45	$55.1K	55,305	0	+55,305	No	+$190	03-03 14:08
bitcoin above 72k on march 9	46	$53.5K	53,745	0	+53,745	No	+$238	03-09 13:35
bitcoin above 72k on march 7	22	$52.9K	52,969	0	+52,969	No	+$53	03-07 18:37
bitcoin above 78k on march 16	28	$51.3K	51,400	0	+51,400	No	+$103	03-16 11:25
will real madrid reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	19	$51.3K	51,390	0	+51,390	Yes	+$129	03-17 21:30
bitcoin above 78k on march 17	4	$51.1K	51,262	0	+51,262	No	+$154	03-17 13:39
Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$51.0K	51,145	0	+51,145	No	+$138	02-04 14:32
bitcoin above 76k on february 5	30	$50.6K	50,771	0	+50,771	No	+$152	02-05 16:13
bitcoin above 70k on february 28	1	$48.9K	48,956	0	+48,956	No	+$49	02-28 14:39
bitcoin above 74k on march 10	8	$46.6K	46,638	0	+46,638	No	+$47	03-10 14:54
bitcoin above 72k on february 18	2	$46.1K	46,210	0	+46,210	No	+$92	02-18 13:09
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	1	$45.4K	45,505	0	+45,505	No	+$91	02-11 14:08
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	13	$42.1K	42,155	0	+42,155	No	+$48	03-24 12:03
bitcoin above 72k on february 27	31	$40.5K	40,661	0	+40,661	No	+$173	02-27 09:55
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?	15	$38.7K	38,909	0	+38,909	No	+$175	02-13 11:42
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$38.4K	41,789	0	+41,789	open	—	08-05 08:33
Netanyahu out by April 30?	23	$38.4K	38,883	0	+38,883	No	+$505	04-04 03:47
bitcoin above 70k on february 20	16	$37.2K	37,392	0	+37,392	No	+$170	02-20 15:16
bitcoin above 72k on february 17	17	$35.4K	35,471	0	+35,471	No	+$35	02-17 18:26
bitcoin above 76k on march 11	18	$33.5K	33,556	0	+33,556	No	+$34	03-11 17:26
bitcoin above 80k on february 1	16	$31.1K	31,549	0	+31,549	No	+$442	02-01 15:58
bitcoin above 72k on february 16	9	$29.6K	29,678	0	+29,678	No	+$59	02-16 15:16
bitcoin above 68k on february 23	30	$27.8K	27,862	0	+27,862	No	+$28	02-23 18:12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	78	$26.7K	21,144	9,359	+11,785	Yes	+$842	07-06 07:00
bitcoin above 68k on february 26	33	$26.4K	26,399	0	+26,399	No	+$26	02-26 19:40
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$26.2K	26,319	0	+26,319	No	+$79	03-30 21:59
bitcoin above 74k on march 28	5	$25.6K	25,620	0	+25,620	No	+$26	03-28 14:08
bitcoin above 68k on february 24	13	$23.9K	23,947	0	+23,947	No	+$24	02-24 20:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:42:14	Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x9bcd8b…
10-26 20:14:14	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x05a6ae…
08-05 08:33:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	376	93¢	$350	0x5ae875…
08-02 12:33:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41,304	92¢	$38,000	0xc06afa…
07-31 19:20:45	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	3,841	99¢	$3,800	0x975b87…
07-31 19:08:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x2fd167…
07-26 07:45:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	Yes	BUY	3,913	96¢	$3,760	0xe9dc5c…
07-16 08:45:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	14,277	98¢	$13,967	0x51add4…
07-16 08:44:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	3,561	97¢	$3,454	0x4617ff…
07-14 20:37:43	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	3,059	88¢	$2,700	0x663cbd…
07-14 20:18:47	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 spread away 1pt5	Spain	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x5170ff…
07-11 08:19:25	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	434	6¢	$26	0x3a832a…
07-10 20:04:59	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0x0a25df…
07-10 19:51:20	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	261	89¢	$232	0xa553de…
07-10 19:50:44	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	8,854	89¢	$7,880	0x7cd6e6…
07-10 19:17:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,398	99¢	$2,374	0xaa364d…
07-10 16:16:34	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	756	8¢	$58	0x74af84…
07-09 16:57:02	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,191	11¢	$130	0xbba409…
07-08 07:59:53	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	4,684	92¢	$4,309	0xed16c0…
07-06 20:58:22	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	7,787	96¢	$7,500	0x8a29da…
07-06 07:01:56	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,357	12¢	$289	0x5bbec2…
07-06 07:00:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	9,359	84¢	$7,879	0x8f5e68…
07-04 22:34:31	Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	133	5¢	$7	0xca3123…
07-04 21:21:32	Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xb1b298…
07-04 11:33:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,920	0x92927c…
07-04 08:29:20	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	3,155	96¢	$3,029	0x48ce57…
07-04 05:07:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xfbdbc1…
07-04 04:52:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xe4fe13…
07-04 02:45:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	90¢	$34	0x32f3d1…
07-04 02:14:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc131ec…
07-04 01:28:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xe406eb…
07-04 01:11:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xbcf267…
07-04 01:07:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xeda730…
07-03 23:44:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb1e400…
07-03 23:30:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	90¢	$110	0x085e7d…
07-03 22:54:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xb2f117…
07-03 22:38:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	90¢	$69	0x42b65d…
07-03 22:37:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,678	90¢	$1,510	0x647685…
07-03 22:36:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	840	90¢	$756	0xc0df0e…
07-03 22:35:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,467	90¢	$1,320	0xc705b4…
07-03 22:32:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xfb6030…
07-03 22:32:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	90¢	$117	0xa47535…
07-03 22:32:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x4ab62b…
07-03 22:32:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0xbede86…
07-03 22:32:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x51d5d4…
07-03 22:32:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x9b92fa…
07-03 22:32:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x7b1d3c…
07-03 22:32:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x445146…
07-03 22:32:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x096e17…
07-03 22:31:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x7bafa0…
07-03 22:31:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0x514d2b…
07-03 22:31:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	90¢	$76	0xcf34c5…
07-03 22:31:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8f1ad7…
07-03 22:31:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0x282fd2…
07-03 22:31:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	90¢	$85	0xcce436…
07-03 22:31:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0x6fa301…
07-03 22:31:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0xdb8f47…
07-03 22:31:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	90¢	$95	0xff42b4…
07-03 22:31:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	90¢	$162	0x3f35de…
07-03 22:31:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0xf16ea0…
07-03 22:31:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0xa98df6…
07-03 22:31:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x6a6923…
07-03 22:31:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x183122…
07-03 22:30:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	90¢	$68	0x2e2534…
07-03 22:30:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x054975…
07-03 22:30:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	90¢	$105	0xf3a3f6…
07-03 22:30:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	151	90¢	$136	0x882b93…
07-03 22:30:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	386	90¢	$347	0x5f61b0…
07-03 22:30:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x2edf7a…
07-03 22:30:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x2c1dc8…
07-03 22:14:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x8c5070…
07-03 22:04:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x6a39ed…
07-03 22:03:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x904ae5…
07-03 22:03:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x5befd3…
07-03 22:03:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x09e000…
07-03 22:03:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0xc0f189…
07-03 22:03:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	90¢	$140	0x846d53…
07-03 20:32:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	90¢	$82	0x537611…
07-03 20:31:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xdcf5e0…
07-03 20:30:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x7c9bd5…
07-03 20:30:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	646	90¢	$581	0x4efc47…
07-03 18:12:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1,343	92¢	$1,236	0x27ec99…
07-03 18:09:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	682	90¢	$614	0xb22fd4…
07-02 11:37:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,265	88¢	$1,113	0x08adee…
07-02 11:37:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	88¢	$33	0xd743d9…
07-02 11:37:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0xcc61f8…
07-02 11:37:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0x8b15d5…
07-02 11:37:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	88¢	$67	0x07e0f6…
07-02 11:36:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x699428…
07-02 11:36:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,573	88¢	$2,265	0xe44a2e…
07-02 11:36:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0xabd771…
07-02 11:36:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x94edcb…
07-02 11:36:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	88¢	$67	0x250c46…
07-02 11:36:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0xd5fddd…
07-02 11:36:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0x5bef2e…
07-02 11:36:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0x3fc99b…
07-02 11:36:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0xc2f581…
07-02 11:36:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$36	0xc289c6…
07-02 11:36:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	88¢	$71	0x7f356c…
07-02 11:36:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	88¢	$146	0x041cc1…