Early-Winter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

63.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$64

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-12 07:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

98% 50% $-2

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets (4)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	-20	$-2	16¢	$-3	$-1	05-07 10:51
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	Yes	+15	$6	18¢	$3	$-4	05-11 08:35
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	-22	$-2	8¢	$-2	+$0	05-12 07:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$11	20	0	+20	Yes	+$9	05-07 04:18
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?	2	$10	10	7	+3	Yes	+$2	05-10 05:23
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?	1	$9	19	0	+19	No	$-9	05-07 11:05
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	1	$6	15	0	+15	open	—	05-11 08:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?	2	$6	0	16	-16	Yes	$-11	05-07 11:26
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?	1	$5	0	8	-8	No	+$5	05-07 10:55
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?	1	$4	0	11	-11	No	+$4	05-06 19:59
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9?	1	$3	8	0	+8	Yes	+$5	05-09 06:39
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?	1	$2	0	7	-7	Yes	$-5	05-07 20:01
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$2	0	20	-20	open	—	05-07 10:51
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$2	0	22	-22	open	—	05-12 07:55
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 10?	1	$1	10	0	+10	No	$-1	05-10 05:18
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?	1	$1	20	0	+20	No	$-1	05-07 11:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	05-12 07:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 07:55:54	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x24cde0…
05-12 07:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2af84c…
05-11 08:35:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0xde187a…
05-10 05:23:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0xa4a7cf…
05-10 05:18:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x36fe53…
05-10 05:13:17	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x9e71d9…
05-09 06:39:40	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x55dcde…
05-07 20:01:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?	Yes	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0xfa3ce1…
05-07 11:30:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x7e3c2c…
05-07 11:26:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	14	34¢	$5	0x5a563b…
05-07 11:25:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x5dca9a…
05-07 11:05:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0x6fa77b…
05-07 10:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0xd12b07…
05-07 10:51:05	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x1b5b86…
05-07 04:18:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xfc71d7…
05-06 19:59:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0x56ff70…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905	10	$749	47	05-12 05:20
Ondra 0x849c…4009	4	$812	20	05-12 05:09
Courageous-Polish 0xc4d5…87cf	3	$8.13K	202	05-12 04:49
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	3	$749	23	05-12 06:41