Cheap-Calculus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$63

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

96.1%

Resolved

Trades

221

lifetime

Volume

$26.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$120

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-04-10

last 07-23 02:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 100% +$1

Other

15% 95% -$64

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-23).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No		+12	$10	95¢	$12	+$2	07-23 02:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	190	$21.7K	10,845	10,839	+6	No	+$0	04-12 08:55
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	2	$1.0K	548	548	+0	No	-$75	07-22 12:57
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	1	$540	541	0	+541	No	+$1	07-21 00:52
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	1	$135	135	0	+135	No	+$0	07-16 06:42
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	1	$133	133	0	+133	No	+$0	07-01 01:23
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	07-07 23:46
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	07-09 10:03
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	1	$130	133	0	+133	No	+$3	06-24 05:17
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	06-28 00:27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	07-02 01:49
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	06-02 02:11
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	06-05 02:21
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	1	$128	129	0	+129	No	+$1	05-28 12:18
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$127	127	0	+127	No	+$0	05-21 01:40
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$127	127	0	+127	No	+$0	05-19 07:54
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$127	127	0	+127	No	+$0	05-25 00:55
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$127	127	0	+127	No	+$0	05-11 04:08
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$126	126	0	+126	No	+$0	05-06 13:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	1	$123	126	0	+126	No	+$3	04-26 02:53
ethereum above 2100 on april 22	1	$123	123	0	+123	Yes	+$0	04-22 08:53
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on april 21	1	$123	123	0	+123	No	+$0	04-21 02:24
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 240 259	1	$122	122	0	+122	No	+$0	04-16 00:54
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$122	122	0	+122	Yes	+$0	04-14 03:17
will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 13	1	$122	122	0	+122	No	+$0	04-13 00:41
will the price of xrp be between 1pt10 1pt20 on april 12	1	$112	112	0	+112	No	+$0	04-11 22:58
will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 11	1	$112	112	0	+112	No	+$0	04-11 03:15
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	1	$112	112	0	+112	No	+$0	04-10 05:21
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	1	$110	110	0	+110	No	+$0	07-13 00:54
will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 15	1	$94	95	0	+95	No	+$0	04-15 01:13
xrp above 1pt1 on april 15	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	04-15 01:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 02:25:42	Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x9aa119…
07-22 12:57:34	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	SELL	548	86¢	$473	0xb967d0…
07-21 23:44:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	548	100¢	$547	0xb07fbc…
07-21 00:52:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	541	100¢	$540	0xfd9362…
07-16 06:42:56	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0xe5ac85…
07-13 00:54:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x87cc28…
07-09 10:03:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x814939…
07-07 23:46:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x3807e8…
07-02 01:49:23	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xdcaba0…
07-01 01:23:59	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x582fd9…
06-28 00:27:50	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xf30b79…
06-24 05:17:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	133	98¢	$130	0xa0dbb6…
06-05 02:21:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x586fc0…
06-02 02:11:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x77e51a…
05-28 12:18:34	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	129	99¢	$128	0x608f74…
05-25 00:55:21	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x055ed2…
05-21 01:40:05	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xca0eeb…
05-19 07:54:16	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x77e823…
05-11 04:08:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x6d00c4…
05-06 13:40:26	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x14f5f3…
04-26 02:53:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	No	BUY	126	97¢	$123	0xbd1050…
04-22 08:53:14	ethereum above 2100 on april 22	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xca0440…
04-21 02:24:50	will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on april 21	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x9728cb…
04-16 00:54:52	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 240 259	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x2de63c…
04-15 01:13:58	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 15	No	BUY	95	100¢	$94	0x305ad4…
04-15 01:11:56	xrp above 1pt1 on april 15	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xbc81b5…
04-14 03:17:29	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x5a463b…
04-13 00:41:35	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 13	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x7734c1…
04-12 08:55:13	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xf43238…
04-12 08:54:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xb61cd3…
04-12 08:53:59	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x008c54…
04-12 08:50:09	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa17384…
04-12 08:44:21	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x64564e…
04-12 08:10:27	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0xe400e2…
04-12 07:44:59	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x2d55cd…
04-12 07:42:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xebde08…
04-12 07:31:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xb63b3f…
04-12 07:31:27	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	33	100¢	$32	0x8e772b…
04-12 07:31:25	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xd684eb…
04-12 07:31:21	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x396b6f…
04-12 07:31:17	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x00776a…
04-12 07:31:13	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x11ec99…
04-12 07:31:09	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf5cb3b…
04-12 07:31:07	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x490452…
04-12 07:31:03	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x9df781…
04-12 07:30:59	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xdb4dc2…
04-12 07:30:55	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x1dc94f…
04-12 07:30:53	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xc56a93…
04-12 07:30:49	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf464ed…
04-12 07:30:45	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x0d4410…
04-12 07:30:43	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x39bd4d…
04-12 07:30:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xfd37f4…
04-12 07:30:37	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x887e15…
04-12 07:30:33	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x8c2818…
04-12 07:30:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x5ab708…
04-12 07:27:37	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x76fcb6…
04-12 07:23:19	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8bbbb9…
04-12 07:19:27	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xed6467…
04-12 07:15:19	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x86388e…
04-12 07:13:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x7fc528…
04-12 07:13:03	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	89	100¢	$89	0xb1795b…
04-12 07:12:43	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x557694…
04-12 07:12:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0xa9c9d7…
04-12 07:12:15	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x3c3702…
04-12 07:11:41	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf48c62…
04-12 07:11:37	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xedcacd…
04-12 07:07:17	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x34dc4a…
04-12 07:03:47	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x681b3b…
04-12 07:02:57	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x835fb3…
04-12 07:01:49	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xfc5aa9…
04-12 07:01:33	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0xfc0ed0…
04-12 07:01:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x23dab1…
04-12 07:01:17	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa31431…
04-12 07:01:05	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	86	100¢	$86	0x05771f…
04-12 07:00:23	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x3ea037…
04-12 07:00:07	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xbcbc3a…
04-12 06:58:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x426f81…
04-12 06:38:09	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x58d364…
04-12 06:25:49	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd12065…
04-12 06:22:07	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0x54f1d7…
04-12 06:20:47	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	141	100¢	$141	0xea7c77…
04-12 06:20:47	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	113	100¢	$113	0x68d621…
04-12 06:20:41	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xcebc40…
04-12 06:20:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	121	100¢	$121	0xa8eba8…
04-12 06:20:27	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	115	100¢	$114	0x3e22a8…
04-12 06:07:19	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd076ce…
04-12 06:03:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x993cbc…
04-12 05:52:27	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	80	100¢	$79	0x9cdd13…
04-12 05:48:47	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8f66ee…
04-12 05:39:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x8ae8b8…
04-12 05:35:43	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x7843f5…
04-12 05:28:47	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	78	100¢	$77	0x5747de…
04-12 05:08:51	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xb8ff20…
04-12 05:08:45	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xe89c19…
04-12 05:08:43	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xb9fc99…
04-12 05:08:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x0713ca…
04-12 05:08:37	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xb38d12…
04-12 05:08:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0xa516ff…
04-12 05:08:29	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x4e43a7…
04-12 05:08:25	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x9f17f8…