Ajar-Gun — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.36K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.0%

Resolved

1,035

Trades

2,174

lifetime

Volume

$19.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 01:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Other

66% 42% +$5,441

Crypto

31% 62% -$1,277

Politics

2% 35% +$203

Sports

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	1	$950	1,007	0	+1,007	No	+$57	10-23 10:30
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	1	$950	1,027	0	+1,027	Yes	+$77	10-23 10:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$500	505	0	+505	Yes	+$5	09-16 18:00
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	1	$419	623	0	+623	Yes	+$203	10-15 12:30
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	1	$400	479	0	+479	No	+$79	10-02 12:30
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	1	$400	624	0	+624	Yes	+$224	09-09 01:30
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	1	$333	340	0	+340	Yes	+$7	10-21 06:00
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$300	311	0	+311	No	+$11	09-11 10:30
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$300	323	0	+323	Yes	+$23	09-11 10:30
Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?	1	$300	305	0	+305	Yes	+$5	09-03 14:00
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	1	$250	771	0	+771	No	+$521	09-30 12:30
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	2	$250	2,279	0	+2,279	Yes	+$2,029	10-28 01:00
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in August?	1	$250	643	0	+643	Yes	+$393	09-30 12:30
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	1	$250	334	0	+334	No	+$84	09-04 12:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$250	298	0	+298	Yes	+$48	07-29 18:00
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	1	$250	327	0	+327	No	+$77	10-14 12:30
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	1	$250	253	0	+253	No	+$3	10-28 01:00
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	1	$250	255	0	+255	No	+$5	10-14 12:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$250	252	0	+252	No	+$2	07-29 18:00
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	1	$245	283	0	+283	No	+$39	08-28 12:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?	7	$184	409	408	+1	No	+$161	06-02 14:27
Will China's CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	2	$177	409	0	+409	Yes	+$233	08-09 01:30
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	1	$175	327	0	+327	No	+$152	10-14 12:30
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	1	$175	547	0	+547	Yes	+$372	10-14 12:30
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	1	$175	179	0	+179	No	+$4	10-14 12:30
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?	1	$175	183	0	+183	Yes	+$8	10-14 12:30
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?	1	$171	174	0	+174	Yes	+$3	08-13 12:30
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	3	$162	174	0	+174	Yes	+$11	07-24 10:30
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	1	$162	194	0	+194	Yes	+$32	10-26 23:00
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?	4	$154	170	11	+159	Yes	+$9	08-04 14:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:00:08	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	643	25¢	$163	0xab5c60…
10-28 01:00:08	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,636	5¢	$87	0x152275…
10-28 01:00:06	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	253	99¢	$250	0xb1619c…
10-26 23:00:03	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	BUY	194	83¢	$162	0x6ad0e8…
10-23 14:00:02	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	207	71¢	$147	0x82415e…
10-23 10:30:05	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1,007	94¢	$950	0x56ff70…
10-23 10:30:03	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,027	93¢	$950	0x105471…
10-21 06:00:08	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	340	98¢	$333	0xd1f426…
10-15 12:30:19	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	623	67¢	$419	0xd3d671…
10-14 12:30:17	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	547	32¢	$175	0xd8aced…
10-14 12:30:17	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	179	97¢	$175	0x5e5451…
10-14 12:30:17	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	BUY	327	76¢	$250	0x163abd…
10-14 12:30:08	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	BUY	327	54¢	$175	0xa6b007…
10-14 12:30:08	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	183	95¢	$175	0x979965…
10-14 12:30:08	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	255	98¢	$250	0x5d437e…
10-14 12:30:06	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	46	56¢	$26	0xf68255…
10-14 01:30:17	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?	No	BUY	131	90¢	$118	0x4d36ec…
10-07 04:32:20	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	109	99¢	$107	0x620458…
10-02 12:30:17	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	BUY	174	74¢	$129	0xbea601…
10-02 12:30:17	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	No	BUY	479	84¢	$400	0x49254e…
09-30 12:30:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	No	BUY	771	32¢	$250	0xdf4a3c…
09-30 12:30:09	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	117	97¢	$114	0x52cb8b…
09-30 12:30:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in August?	Yes	BUY	643	39¢	$250	0x06fba9…
09-29 14:00:05	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in August?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x22143d…
09-29 12:30:03	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be less than 0.0%?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0xbc8107…
09-25 14:00:03	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in September?	No	BUY	58	99¢	$58	0x079135…
09-23 13:06:19	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x27257d…
09-16 18:04:30	will bitcoin dip to 73k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	99	8¢	$8	0xc5e309…
09-16 18:00:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x4f9eaa…
09-16 08:05:09	will bitcoin reach 78k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xeaf108…
09-16 08:05:06	will bitcoin reach 78k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0x0d9db7…
09-16 08:03:43	will bitcoin reach 79k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	71	6¢	$4	0x02df25…
09-16 07:31:48	will bitcoin reach 78k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x9262a3…
09-16 07:31:48	will bitcoin reach 78k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x26bdf2…
09-16 07:06:19	will bitcoin dip to 73k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x3e07d8…
09-16 06:02:51	will bitcoin reach 79k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0xd3732b…
09-16 05:44:25	will bitcoin dip to 74k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	93	25¢	$23	0xa88597…
09-16 05:44:25	will bitcoin dip to 74k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x829bd6…
09-16 05:41:31	will bitcoin dip to 74k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xc62283…
09-16 05:41:31	will bitcoin dip to 74k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xc57be7…
09-16 05:40:51	will bitcoin dip to 74k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x813f26…
09-16 05:40:51	will bitcoin dip to 74k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0x302ebe…
09-16 05:24:30	will bitcoin reach 78k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xf0a18c…
09-16 05:07:46	will bitcoin reach 79k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x8b0bf8…
09-16 05:07:46	will bitcoin reach 79k on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x200e59…
09-15 17:16:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0x0897c8…
09-15 08:07:34	will bitcoin reach 79k on september 15 2026	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x361cc7…
09-11 10:30:07	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	323	93¢	$300	0x44b0c3…
09-11 10:30:06	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	311	96¢	$300	0x241a0a…
09-09 01:30:16	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	624	64¢	$400	0xdfb969…
09-04 12:30:16	Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x856f72…
09-04 12:30:07	Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	No	BUY	334	75¢	$250	0xcf8105…
09-03 14:00:03	Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0x4d8f8f…
09-01 14:00:03	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xee5b3b…
09-01 12:00:04	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?	No	BUY	104	93¢	$96	0xf6c016…
08-28 16:02:57	bitcoin above 82k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	120	10¢	$12	0xee4204…
08-28 15:52:00	bitcoin above 82k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xf08f79…
08-28 15:49:12	bitcoin above 84k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	322	5¢	$16	0x6ac8cd…
08-28 14:13:24	bitcoin above 84k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	78	5¢	$4	0x0feabc…
08-28 12:30:04	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	283	86¢	$245	0x674bb8…
08-27 00:50:06	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xd6ba76…
08-26 12:30:16	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?	Yes	BUY	187	80¢	$150	0x31a9d1…
08-26 12:30:12	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	154	95¢	$146	0x88b3a4…
08-25 02:20:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 28?	No	BUY	117	10¢	$12	0x886c84…
08-25 02:18:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x5470ef…
08-21 17:59:22	bitcoin above 76k on august 28 2026	No	BUY	83	10¢	$8	0xdc404c…
08-20 08:07:15	bitcoin above 66k on august 26 2026	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x716f7f…
08-19 20:51:15	bitcoin above 64k on august 26 2026	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x5ff42e…
08-13 16:42:16	bitcoin above 66k on august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x7c31ca…
08-13 12:30:06	Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?	Yes	BUY	174	98¢	$171	0x9b5b47…
08-13 06:01:25	Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	Yes	BUY	93	96¢	$90	0xae490d…
08-12 12:30:07	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc7dbe0…
08-12 12:30:06	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?	No	BUY	180	55¢	$100	0xcb09dd…
08-12 12:30:06	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x18cc1e…
08-09 01:30:21	Will China's CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	354	42¢	$150	0xc024b5…
08-09 01:30:21	Will China's CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	48¢	$27	0x4032d0…
08-07 12:30:06	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?	No	BUY	126	60¢	$75	0xb6ad92…
08-06 13:24:44	bitcoin above 66k on august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	330	5¢	$16	0x3a80d9…
08-06 10:22:57	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0x7118b3…
08-06 10:21:12	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x82f429…
08-04 14:00:05	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?	Yes	BUY	159	94¢	$150	0xb1aeb8…
08-04 12:30:03	Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x45485c…
08-04 12:30:03	Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x45365b…
08-03 19:44:50	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?	No	SELL	3	55¢	$1	0xdc417f…
08-03 19:44:36	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?	Yes	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0x76c6b3…
08-03 19:42:20	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7899b9…
08-03 19:42:18	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x59ece4…
08-03 19:42:18	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x2ef3bf…
08-03 19:42:18	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x092d81…
08-03 14:40:54	bitcoin above 60k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	389	5¢	$19	0xa5b4d4…
08-03 14:00:03	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x02a51b…
08-03 12:25:44	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xc664c2…
08-03 12:25:29	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x4e44dc…
08-03 12:18:33	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd4f68e…
08-03 12:18:33	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x72f6a0…
08-03 12:18:33	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x71119c…
08-03 12:18:33	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x0a731a…
08-03 11:43:15	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x232d96…
08-03 11:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xdbadb3…
08-03 11:17:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x4e5260…