Expert-Bunkhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.90K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

Trades

639

lifetime

Volume

$2.82M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$4.42K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 07-25 18:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Politics

64% 90% +$4,197

Other

25% 67% +$3,402

Sports

9% 0% $0

Tech

1% 50% +$1,229

Crypto

0% 100% +$68

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-25).

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	45	$483.6K	484,268	0	+484,268	Yes	+$646	05-09 18:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	6	$439.8K	440,287	0	+440,287	Yes	+$440	05-09 19:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	47	$293.0K	147,352	147,352	+0	Yes	-$414	04-07 23:36
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	237	$248.4K	124,470	124,470	+0	Yes	$0	07-07 23:07
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$214.8K	120,000	120,000	+0	open	—	07-05 00:40
netanyahu out by march 31 854	24	$185.6K	95,565	95,565	+0	No	+$4,699	04-01 04:44
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	14	$160.4K	81,715	81,715	+0	Yes	-$2,158	04-29 01:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	43	$119.9K	121,835	0	+121,835	Yes	+$1,897	06-16 23:00
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	1	$119.9K	120,000	0	+120,000	No	+$120	07-06 21:07
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	22	$110.6K	110,702	0	+110,702	No	+$111	06-29 23:18
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	54	$92.8K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	05-20 19:47
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	12	$72.6K	73,000	0	+73,000	No	+$368	04-30 20:07
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	26	$65.5K	66,085	0	+66,085	Yes	+$555	06-22 05:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$63.9K	64,317	0	+64,317	Yes	+$438	04-08 20:28
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	9	$35.7K	35,803	0	+35,803	Yes	+$107	04-16 20:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$23.8K	12,058	12,058	+0	No	+$289	07-05 00:51
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	9	$19.9K	21,239	0	+21,239	Yes	+$1,345	04-23 18:02
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$19.8K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$160	06-22 10:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$13.5K	13,607	0	+13,607	No	+$68	06-03 21:48
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	13	$12.2K	11,809	1,816	+9,993	Yes	+$802	05-16 21:47
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	3	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$140	05-19 23:24
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	15	$8.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$1,100	04-23 17:02
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	3	$4.1K	6,492	6,492	+0	No	-$972	04-07 18:31
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.8K	0	3,052	-3,052	Yes	-$244	05-21 05:48
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.7K	1,688	0	+1,688	No	+$25	05-19 23:25
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?	14	$637	4,656	1,463	+3,193	No	-$625	05-16 21:46
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	1	$422	0	459	-459	Yes	-$37	05-21 05:48
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	16	$111	0	110,702	-110,702	No	+$111	06-29 23:30
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	4	$75	1,440	0	+1,440	Yes	-$75	05-15 01:26
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	07-25 18:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 18:11:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x66ea4e…
07-07 23:07:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	124,470	100¢	$124,221	0x4ddbad…
07-07 19:58:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,784	100¢	$1,781	0xc79c38…
07-07 19:58:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	825	100¢	$823	0x983881…
07-07 19:58:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5d0534…
07-07 19:58:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,093	100¢	$1,091	0x792271…
07-07 19:58:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc0a6d2…
07-07 19:57:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0xf11819…
07-07 19:57:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xe71bc5…
07-07 19:57:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	50,000	100¢	$49,900	0x730224…
07-07 19:57:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	512	100¢	$511	0x5268b8…
07-07 19:57:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x53a71a…
07-07 19:57:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x7dc0c7…
07-07 19:57:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x10c006…
07-07 19:57:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xe0e962…
07-07 19:57:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x73db82…
07-07 19:57:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x55a265…
07-07 19:57:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd241ec…
07-07 19:57:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x925f2c…
07-07 19:57:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xbb0f2e…
07-07 19:57:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xa9c387…
07-07 19:57:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x3e570c…
07-07 19:57:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$36	0x22bb74…
07-07 19:57:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5,500	100¢	$5,489	0xbf1285…
07-07 19:57:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xfebadc…
07-07 19:57:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	26,146	100¢	$26,094	0x54c340…
07-07 19:57:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xec611c…
07-07 19:57:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	800	100¢	$798	0x68aca5…
07-07 19:57:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xe2616b…
07-07 19:57:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x66da90…
07-07 19:57:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5bc527…
07-07 19:57:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x1fa937…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf596c1…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd3a75d…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xada9d8…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x6f2106…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x6aa1c2…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1ad8a4…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x11a60d…
07-07 19:57:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x01a4cc…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xfc3736…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf93bbf…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xe6bb9b…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd1161e…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd0ec64…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xa1b8e5…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x9cf3d3…
07-07 19:57:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x8dfd42…
07-07 19:57:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x4e5303…
07-07 19:57:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf41142…
07-07 19:57:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x8f5f4b…
07-07 19:57:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x84f910…
07-07 19:57:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x7b4e06…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xe82668…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc6a9e5…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x9bea4b…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x7fb2cf…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x782585…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5bc7de…
07-07 19:57:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1d0561…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xcc3d5e…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xbd1ec9…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xa12c91…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x9fdb39…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x93053d…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5a6994…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x147cbf…
07-07 19:57:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x0c6a84…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf0f846…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xe3baba…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xde6314…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xb26d75…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xac6975…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x917ecf…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x8919dc…
07-07 19:57:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x4fbadf…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xdfe526…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xc0f39e…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xb66e9b…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5a0fa6…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x450381…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x410a23…
07-07 19:57:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1e88e6…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xe19f66…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xcda69d…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x92c489…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x6301a4…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5a2c7d…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x4541b8…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x2c4347…
07-07 19:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x2718dc…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd3a6f6…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xa76b19…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x60c849…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x3ce847…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x238e65…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1d9092…
07-07 19:57:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x043a9c…
07-07 19:56:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xef22a4…
07-07 19:56:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xcab6f4…